我国经济增长效率损失研究：基于要素空间错配下产业结构失衡的分析

In the context of new economic normal, to promote economic growth efficiency and achieve fine sustainable development have become important objectives of macroeconomic management at this stage. In the light of the development concept of “stabilizing growth, adjusting structure and advancing reform”, from the perspective of improving spatial allocation of factors and optimizing industrial structure, the paper has designed the path to sustainable macroeconomic development, and thus is of certain theoretical significance and realistic value. This study combines the research perspective of structuralism with the analytical framework of spatial economics. Firstly, it has followed a transmission mechanism of “distorted spatial allocation of factors—impeded rationalization and advanced retardation of industrial structure—loss in economic growth rate and total factor productivity”, and then classified and constructed a neo-classical and spatial “core-periphery” economic growth model; Secondly, through analysis of static, dynamic and general equilibrium state, it has deduced the theoretical mechanism and hypotheses; thirdly, it has synthetically applied measurement means to an empirical analysis of development practices in China, so as to verify theoretical hypotheses and produce policy recommendations. From the perspective of industrial structure imbalance under spatial misallocation of factors, the study explains loss problems in macroeconomic growth efficiency, designs reasonable policy recommendations for realizing high-quality sustainable economic growth, and echoes the development and reform thinking of “cutting overcapacity, destocking, deleveraging, reducing corporate costs and shoring up weak spots” under the new normal.

在经济新常态的背景下，提升我国经济增长效率，实现有质量的可持续发展已成为现阶段宏观经济管理的重要目标。结合“稳增长、调结构、促改革”的发展思路，从提升要素空间配置及优化产业结构的视角，设计宏观经济可持续发展的路径，具有理论意义和现实价值。本课题将结构主义的研究视角与空间经济学的分析框架相结合，首先，沿着“要素空间配置扭曲——产业结构合理化受阻、产业结构高级化迟滞——经济增长率损失、全要素生产率损失”的传导机制，分类构建新古典及空间“核心—边缘”经济增长模型；其次，通过对静态均衡、动态均衡以及一般均衡状态的分析，推演理论机理及假说；再次，综合运用计量手段对我国发展实践进行实证分析，以验证理论假说，设计政策建议。本课题从要素空间错配下产业结构失衡的角度，解释宏观经济增长效率损失问题，设计实现经济高质量可持续发展的合理化政策建议，并呼应了新常态下 “三去一降一补”的发展改革思路。

面对经济下行压力，推动我国宏观经济提质增效、实现高质量发展已成为现阶段的重要任务。而发展实践中的特征事实表明，我国要素配置存在区域偏向及空间扭曲，这将抑制产业结构合理化及高级化进程，导致宏观经济增长效率损失。本项目运用理论建构与实证分析相结合的方法，研究要素空间错配、产业结构失衡与经济增长效率损失之间的关系。主要研究内容及结果如下：一是分层构建区域空间及产业空间双重维度下要素错配影响产业结构失衡的理论模型，分析均衡状态下对于宏观经济增长效率损失的影响机制，推演了传导过程。二是结合高质量发展要求，测算了我国生产要素空间配置情况，发现劳动力错配呈现出先降低再加剧的变动趋势，而资本错配呈现由波动剧烈向趋缓发展的变动趋势。三是对我国生产要素错配的影响因素进行计量分析，发现政策偏向、空间迁移成本、市场容量、发展条件等因素具有直接影响，且具有显著的空间相关性。四是结合空间计量模型，测算了要素空间错配下产业结构失衡对于经济增长效率的影响，验证了产业结构高级化和合理化受阻的中介效应，检验了影响机制中存在的滞后效应和空间效应。五是结合乡村振兴战略和农业供给侧结构性改革，以产业融合发展和体系优化为驱动，分类设计了推动村镇发展的精准化路径。六是结合创新要素特点，以军民融合政策实施为视角和切入点，研究主体协同创新下异质性区域发展路径。七是结合人口老龄化和需求结构变动的宏观背景，设计促进产业转型升级，推动经济可持续发展的实现道路。本项目从要素空间错配下产业结构失衡的角度，解释了宏观经济增长效率损失的形成机制，设计了优化生产要素空间配置，促进产业结构升级，推动经济高质量、可持续发展的对策建议，呼应了十九届五中全会对于践行新发展理念、构建新发展格局的要求，具有决策参考价值。