房价波动与住房需求：基于获利动机和对冲动机的研究

The urban residential property market in China has a rapid development since the housing reform in 1990s. Strong housing demands push housing price skyrocketing. The existing literatures often analyze the housing demands from the perspectives of either consumption demands or investment demands, respectively, and neglect the motives of investment demands. This study considers the households’ housing decision with two motives, profit motive from the households whose housing consumption demands are satisfied; and hedging motive from the households whose housing consumption demands are unmet. The both motives generate strong housing demand, and influence housing price volatility further. First, this study focuses on the households’ housing decision, distinguishes housing demands between the consumption demands and investment demands, enriches the literatures on housing decision theory. Second, this study identifies the households with different motives based on the microdata from China Household Finance Survey, and overcomes the limitation of previous researches on housing demand motives. Third, the research on the feedback effects of housing demands from both motives on housing price volatility, deepens the understanding on the variations of residential property markets in different cities, and provides the theoretical support to housing market regulation.

我国自上个世纪末实行住房改革以来，城市住房市场发展迅速，需求空前繁荣，房价屡创新高。现有文献多分别从消费性需求和投资性需求角度分析我国家庭住房需求，而对于家庭住房投资性需求的动机并未引起足够的重视。本课题从家庭住房决策入手，分析了消费性住房需求得到满足和尚未满足的家庭在投资性住房需求上分别具有的获利动机和对冲动机，指出这两种动机交叉推升的需求会进一步影响房价波动。首先，本课题通过对住房决策过程的研究，厘清了家庭住房的消费性需求和投资性需求，丰富现有文献对于家庭住房决策理论的认识；其次，本课题区分了家庭投资性住房需求的不同动机，通过中国家庭金融调查的微观数据识别了不同动机的家庭，克服了现有文献对于投资动机研究的不足；再次，基于不同动机的需求对于房价波动反馈作用的研究，加深了对于不同城市房地产市场差异的认识，为更好地规范和调控住房市场，使住房回归居住本能提供理论支持。

近些年我国城市住房市场空前繁荣，房价飞速上涨，住房的可负担性日益恶化，然而城市住房需求却依旧旺盛，这种现象被一些学者称为中国住房需求之谜。本研究认为中国旺盛的住房需求主要来自中国城市家庭的对冲动机。在房价持续高涨的住房市场中，城市家庭为了对冲未来高价购买住房的风险，有动机尽可能的投资住房资产。本研究使用中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）的微观调查数据，发现65%的中国城市家庭并没有拥有自己的合意住房，46%的中国城市家庭无法负担的起自己的合意住房。在房价飞速上涨的大背景下，中国家庭倾向更多的配置住房资产，以对冲未来购房的风险。这一对冲行为，在住房短缺以及负担能力较弱的家庭中尤为明显。除此以外，本研究还探索了中国城市户籍制度对于住房市场的影响。本项目研究基本达到了预期的研究目标，完成论文9篇（其中3篇已经接受发表，3篇处于返修阶段，3篇在审）；出版专著一本；培养博士生三人。研究成果加深了对于不同城市房地产市场差异的认识，为更好地规范和调控住房市场，使住房回归居住本能提供理论支持。