住房对家庭资产配置及财富分配的影响研究：机制、模拟与实证

In view of the widespread phenomenon of household “Asset Allocation Puzzle” and relative lack of theoretical researches on household finance, this project focuses on the effect of housing on household asset allocation and studies the effects of housing on household asset allocation and its wealth distribution as well as the specific performance in China based on sorting out the academic system of household asset allocation. Specific research framework as follows: Firstly, by combing through the relevant literature at home and abroad, we generalize and build the theoretical system of household asset allocation from four main factors: background risks, family characteristics, socio-cultural and economic environment. Secondly, involving household properties in asset allocation, we analyze the dynamic effects of housing investment on asset allocation of the family along with the household wealth through the analysis of mechanism, theoretical modeling, parameter estimation methods and numerical simulations. Again, the project conducts empirical test on the relationship between household housing investment and asset allocation behavior based on survey data, then analyzes and interprets the phenomenon of household “Asset Allocation Puzzle”, while estimating the wealth distribution effects. Finally, on the basis of the above research, we provide policy advice to the individual investors, financial institutions, and relevant decision-making departments in government.

本项目针对家庭“资产配置之谜”的普遍存在以及家庭金融理论研究相对不足等现状，以住房对家庭资产配置的影响为研究主线，在梳理家庭资产配置的学理体系的基础上，研究住房影响家庭资产配置及财富分配的微观机制及其在中国的具体表现。具体的研究框架如下：首先，通过对国内外相关文献梳理，从背景风险、家庭特征、社会文化以及经济环境等四个方面对影响家庭资产配置的主要因素进行概括并构建学理体系；其次，把住房纳入到家庭资产配置的理论框架，通过机制分析、理论建模、参数估计与数值模拟等方法分析住房投资对家庭资产配置及家庭财富的动态影响效果；再次，基于微观调查数据对住房投资与家庭资产配置行为进行实证检验，分析并解释家庭“资产配置之谜”，同时测算其财富分配效应；最后，在以上研究基础上，分别为家庭投资者、金融服务机构以及政府相关决策部门提供相应的建议。

在全球范围内，家庭在资产配置方面都表现出住房持有率较高和股票市场参与不足等特点，普遍存在“资产配置之谜”现象。对于中国来说，自20世纪九十年代末期实施城镇住房制度改革以来，不同城市的商品房价格在持续上升后逐步出现区域分化现象。在房价风险未知的前提下，家庭过于依赖住房投资，会影响到家庭资产配置行为并产生一系列经济社会效应。由此，本研究旨在探讨不同房价风险背景下，家庭住房投资对家庭资产配置行为产生的影响及其效应，如对家庭投资决策、消费支出结构、财富分配以及家庭收入差距可能产生的影响。研究内容重点梳理了住房投资影响家庭资产配置行为的理论机制并实证检验了住房投资对家庭资产配置行为的影响，住房、家庭财富对于家庭消费结构的影响，家庭住房财富差距的动态流动性趋势，以及房价波动、住房财富对于家庭收入差距的影响等。这一研究丰富了住房投资与家庭资产配置的相关文献，对于如何引导家庭合理投资、提升居民消费需求、制定合理的住房政策、调整社会财富差距、促进地方经济的稳定健康发展等方面均具有重要的指导意义。