基于催化剂扩散和输送的人工增雨作业影响区的确定

In the current project, the Lagrangian transport and dispersion model FLEXible PARTicle (FLEXPART) driven by high resolution (1km×1km) meteorological fields from the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model will be used to identify the transport and dispersion characteristics of cloud seeding catalyst in the study areas, including the meander region in upper Yellow River and Three-River Headwaters Region in Northwestern China. In the same time, the WRF-modeled data will be evaluated by comparing with the hourly weather observations from land surface stations archived at the MICAPS in the study area. Trajectory and concentration calculated by FLEXPART model for the experiments of artificial precipitation with different operation ways will be analyzed in order to get the dispersion speed and regions of the cloud seeding catalyst. Integrated WRF-FLEXPART modeling system will be used to understand the spatial distribution characteristics of the cloud seeding catalyst and to identify the potential dispersion regions. The influenced zones for artificial precipitation were identified based on catalyst diffusion and transport study. From this project, a new method was provided for effectiveness evaluation of artificial precipitation. The results from this research will not only be useful for the development of scientific experiment and seeding evaluation, but also improve the service ability of weather modification operations.

在中尺度WRF模式对高原大气过程模拟能力通过的基础上，本项目拟利用模式提供的高时空分辨率气象场资料（1km×1km），驱动拉格朗日扩散模式FLEXPART，研究青海三江源地区黄河上游河曲地区不同作业方式（高炮、火箭和飞机）人工增雨作业播云催化剂输送和扩散特征，分析并确定播云催化剂的时空分布、扩撒速率、范围等，在此基础上确定人工增雨作业的地面影响区。通过本项目的实施，以期为人工增雨作业效果检验提供新思路，为人工增雨作业设计以及人影业务能力提升提供有力的的技术支撑和科学依据。

本项目围绕主要研究内容和研究目标，开展了大量观测资料分析和数值模拟工作，基本完成了利用中尺度数值模式和拉格朗日扩散模式对不同区域不同作业方式人工增雨作业播云催化剂扩散输送特征的模拟研究，用于确定人工增雨作业影响区，揭示较高分辨率气象场对播云催化剂的影响，为人工增雨作业效果检验中影响面积的确定提供新思路，为人工增雨作业方案设计以及人影业务能力提升提供有力的的技术支撑和科学依据。此外，本项目在执行期最后一年，有针对性地开展了作业目标云系垂直探测和催化作业前后平飞探测，用于项目后续研究中。