后金融危机时代公允价值推广——基于制度交互效应与投资者认知偏差的实验研究

This research, from the promotion of fair value of New Accounting Standards, studies the investment decision process under the market mechanism interaction. It based on the greater selective characteristics of accounting policy, the investors' cognitive law as link, and took withdrawal mechanism of capital market under the China institution background as the breakthrough point. In terms of theory, this paper widens the investment decision-making of perfect rationality; studies some problems, such as the impact of the uncertain environment for cognitive ration, the uncertain effect affected by the market mechanism agreement because of the interaction effect between fair value and ST mechanism, and the investment decision-making irrational regional enlargement; establishes the investment decision-making model under perfect market hypothesis which shown China institution environment; creates a new conduction path in the block box of "criterion change - investors choose"; and builds the interaction transmission conduction mechanism between accounting system and other market mechanism. In terms of empirical research, this paper provides a large number of empirical research evidence for many concerns caused by the fair value promotion of new accounting standards during post financial crisis era. Based on the systematic perspective, this research breaks the closed boundary of accounting system and provides theoretical framework and empirical evidences for understanding the market operation mechanism under China institution background, perfecting corporate governance, improving the quality and disclosure level of accounting information system, and refining the institution design and implementation of China capital market.

本研究从后金融危机时代公允价值推广出发，基于公允价值下会计政策选择性较大的特点，以投资者认知偏差为纽带，我国制度背景下的资本市场退市制度为切入点，研究了市场机制交互作用下的投资决策过程。理论上，放宽了完美理性的投资决策假定，研究了公允价值和退市制度交互效应下的不确定性环境对决策理性的冲击，以及市场机制的契合放大投资决策的非理性区域等问题。借助实验手段，本项目建立了一个体现中国制度背景的投资决策模型，打通了"准则变更-投资者选择"黑匣中的制度传导路径，研究了会计系统与其它市场机制交互作用的传导模式；实证上，为后金融危机时代，解读公允价值推广产生的诸多市场疑虑提供了大量先验性实证研究证据。本项目对制度交互效应的研究，打破了会计系统的封闭边界，为理解中国制度背景下的交易制度运行特点，完善公司治理机制、提高会计信息系统的质量和披露水平、改进市场制度设计和运行效率提供了理论框架和实证研究成果。

本项目围绕中国推广公允价值的自然实验，提出会计准则扩大公允价值使用导致管理层主观判断空间增大的理论推断。项目组基于这一理论观点，检验了公允价值在中国的实施效果和相关作用机制，结果发现：（1）公允价值扩大使用后，公司的会计盈余管理上升，真实盈余管理发生下降，而会计信息的相关性水平提高；（2）会计信息的稳健性水平发生下降；（3）市场对于会计准则增加管理层判断呈负面评价，准则变更的长短期效应显著为负，股票的市场暴跌风险显著上升。该成果从管理层判断的视角全面评价了公允价值扩大的经济后果，对包括美国在内的世界各国会计准则改革具有重要的启示作用。根据该项研究成果，将会计准则由规则导向转变为原则导向，并不是类似我国制度背景国家最合适的会计准则改革方向。