基础设施项目外部效应的演化机理、多维评价与生态补偿研究

Since the China Reform and Opening, the external effects of infrastructure projects have not been fully taken into account during the extensive infrastructure development, leading to some outstanding and practical problems in the supply of infrastructure projects, such as the difficulties in the profitability of infrastructure projects and the heavy government burden on the governing of external effects. In order to systematically and ecologically solve the external effects of infrastructure projects and promote the sustainable development of infrastructure, this program aims to: (1) reveal the formation and evolution mechanism of the external economic effects, social effects and ecological effects of infrastructure projects; (2) construct the multidimensional evaluation system of external effects of infrastructure projects; (3) design and put forward the ecological compensation strategies of external effects of infrastructure projects; (4) simulate and validate the mechanism and models. To achieve the above objectives, this program first considers the characteristics of external effects of infrastructure projects and adopts evolutionary game theory as the analytical paradigm. Moreover, this program also uses multidisciplinary technology such as economics, complex network analysis, spatial econometrics, and industrial ecology. The research results will not only innovate the theories of external effects and the pricing theory of infrastructure projects, but also help to adjust the real price of infrastructure projects, improve the efficiency of infrastructure resource allocation, and promote the sustainable development of infrastructure projects.

自改革开放以来的粗放式基础设施开发并没有充分考虑其外部效应，致使基础设施项目的供给产生了一些突出的现实问题，例如基础设施项目盈利难、外部效应治理政府负担重等。为了系统的、生态化的解决基础设施外部效应，并且促进基础设施的可持续发展，本课题结合基础设施项目外部效应的特性，以演化博弈论为分析范式，综合应用经济学、复杂网络分析、空间计量经济学和产业生态学等多学科交叉技术，深入揭示基础设施项目外部经济效应、社会效应和生态效应的产生和演化机理，构建基础设施项目外部效应的多维评价体系，设计并提出基础设施项目外部效应的生态补偿策略，并应用构建的外部效应基础数据库和模拟仿真工具进行理论和模型的模拟和验证。研究结果不仅是对基础设施项目外部效应理论及基础设施项目定价理论等理论的创新，还将有助于调整基础设施项目的真实价格、提升基础设施资源配置的效率，促进基础设施项目的可持续发展。

基础设施项目外部效应影响因素繁多，外部效应存在多维度、多类型的特点利益相关方众多，致使基础设施项目外部效应治理和基础设施项目的有效供给难度大。本研究从系统论的角度出发，综合运用多学科交叉技术与方法，对基础设施项目外部效应的多维评价、形成机理、补偿机制进行研究。主要研究及结论包括：（1）综合运用文献计量学、文献综述、理论分析等方法，总结了全部基础设施及交通基础设施外部效应的特性、分类及评估方法以及最新研究进展；（2）综合运用熵权法、灰色关联分析法，以公路基础设施为例，构建了外部效应社会、经济、生态三维综合评价模型，并通过实证研究验证了其可行性和有效性；（3）综合运用驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应模型构建了外部效应DPSIR形成机理模型，以公路基础设施为例实证验证了外部性的形成机制及各相关因素的影响路径；（4）综合运用理论分析、享乐价格法、条件估值法、替代成本法、系统动力学和计算实验等方法，以轨道交通项目为例，提出包括土地储备、增长票价、财政补贴等的轨道交通项目外部性综合补偿机制，并通过实证研究和计算实验模拟验证了补偿机制在优化资源配置、缓解政府财政压力和投资激励方面的有效性。本研究成果不仅为系统化的进行基础设施项目外部性治理提供了理论创新，还为提升基础设施项目的供给效果、资源配置效率提供理论支撑，促进基础设施项目的可持续发展。