中国人口收缩区城镇化发展区域分异研究

As with the global trend, China's population shrinkage areas are gradually expanding, now account for more than 30% of China's land and population. However, most of China's population shrinkage areas is still in the stage of rapid urbanization, and urbanization is the only way to solve the agricultural and rural and farmers' problems and to build a moderately well-off society in all aspects. There is an urgent need to strengthen the systematic research on the urbanization of China's population shrinkage areas. This project aims to comprehensively understand the spatial pattern of China's population shrinkage areas during the period from 1990 to 2015 and the main influencing factors. In-depth analysis of the regional urbanization differences of China's population shrinkage areas, including the quantitative assessment the regional differentiation of their environment suitability and dynamic strength. Further, this project would explore the formation mechanism of their regional urbanization differences, and put forward the division method of their regional difference types. Combined with typical case studies, this project would summarize the theory of regional differentiation of urbanization in China's population shrinkage areas, and puts forward different types of urbanization development pattern . In academic aspect, this project will promote scientific awareness and research on the new-type region of "population shrinkage areas", and will deepen and enrich the theoretical research on new-type urbanization and sustainable development in China. In practice aspect, this project will provide scientific basis and guidelines for China's population shrinkage areas to adapt suitable urbanization models and countermeasures according to their local conditions.

与全球性趋势一样，我国人口收缩区呈现逐步扩大之势，目前已占全国国土和人口的30%以上。但中国人口收缩区大多仍处于城镇化快速发展阶段，城镇化是其解决农业农村农民问题、全面建成小康社会的必由之路，迫切需要加强对人口收缩区城镇化发展的系统性理论研究。本项目旨在全面认识1990－2015年期间中国人口收缩区的空间格局演变与主要影响因素；深入剖析人口收缩区城镇化发展区域差异，量化测度其发展条件适宜性和发展动力强弱的区域分异；揭示人口收缩区城镇化发展区域差异的形成机理，提出区域差异类型划分方法；并结合典型案例研究，归纳总结出中国人口收缩区城镇化发展区域分异理论，提出不同类型区的城镇化发展模式与可持续发展对策。在学术上有助于弥补和开拓对“人口收缩区”这一特殊类型区域的科学认知，深化和丰富新型城镇化和可持续发展理论研究；在实践上可为人口收缩区因地制宜地采用不同类型的城镇化发展模式与策略提供科学依据。

与全球性趋势一样，我国人口收缩区呈现逐步扩大之势；但与发达国家不同的是，中国人口收缩区大多仍处于城镇化快速发展阶段，城镇化是其解决农业农村农民问题的必由之路，因此迫切需要加强对人口收缩区城镇化发展的系统性研究。首先，本项目提出了适合中国国情的人口收缩的概念界定、测度指标及区域类型，建立1990－2015年中国分县市人口与城镇化综合空间数据库，采用单一测度指标和综合测度指标，识别并分析了1990-2015年期间地级和县市尺度人口收缩区的区域类型与格局演变，发现人口收缩现象在县市尺度非常明显，人口收缩区占比均超过20%，人口收缩区可划分出持续收缩型、增长转收缩型、收缩转增长型、持续增长型等动态演变类型。其次，分析了我国人口收缩的影响因素，发现经济发展因素对人口收缩区的形成影响显著，同时人口自然增长的作用不断增强，并划分出：经济滞后驱动型、经济滞后和自然增长低双驱动型、经济放缓和自然增长低双驱动型、自然增长低驱动型等四种不同人口收缩成因类型。其三，识别并划分出“城增乡减型”、“城乡双收缩型”和“城减乡增型”三种人口收缩区城镇化发展不同类型，其中“城增乡减型”区域占据主体，且比重呈上升趋势；而“城乡双收缩型”和“城减乡增型”的区域数量较少，且主要分布在东北地区；建立人口收缩城乡分异的理论分析框架，发现城镇化水平和经济发展水平对人口收缩城乡分异特征的影响最为显著。其四，选择青藏高原、东北三省、广东省、北京市，以及河南固始县、湖北荆州市、内蒙古鄂尔多斯市等地区开展典型案例研究，实地调研不同类型人口收缩区的形成机理，提交了东北三省人口衰减及结构问题分析、青藏高原边境地区固边型镇村体系构建、北京市人口疏解应注重防范风险等多份咨询报告，并被中办采用。