可再生能源分布式冷热电联供系统优化设计与协同控制

The distributed combined cooling, heating and power system for renewable energy (CCHP) undoubtedly becomes an important direction for the development of energy technologies. The biomass CCHP system, photovoltaic generation, solar thermal and other multiple complementary energy system show the characteristics of diversity, coupling random and nonlinearity. Thus, the optimal integration and high-efficient operation are exceedingly difficult that become the crucial technology bottleneck restricting the development of CCHP for renewable energy. This project introduces the integrated model of “energy production and utilization” based on mechanism analysis and experimental identification, as well as the building the dynamic model of energy system and load; Considering the satisfaction for initiative load, the multi-attribute comprehensive decision-making system will be built through indicator selection, normalization, subjective and objective weight optimization and integration decisions; Furthermore, based on life-cycle assessment (LCA) and swarm intelligence optimization theory, the integrated design methods, covering equipment selection, capacity configuration and critical control parameters, are also studied by considering the energy, load, evaluation and control; Lastly, combining with electricity, climate information and load prediction based on chaotic time series, the collaborative optimal scheduling strategies including load and source in multiple timescale are proposed under the hierarchical control architecture with multi-agent system (MAS). This research will feasibly promote the development and applications of CCHP.

基于可再生能源的分布式冷热电联供系统无可置疑地成为能源技术发展的重要方向。生物质能冷热电联供、光伏、光热等多元互补能源系统呈现多元、耦合、随机、非线性等特点，其优化集成和高效运行极其困难，遂成为制约其发展的关键技术瓶颈。本项目采用“产供用能”一体化模式，基于机理分析和实验辨识，建立供能系统和用能负荷整体动态模型；计及用户侧负荷需求特性，通过指标选择、归一化、主客观权重优化和集成决策，构建分布式冷热电联供系统多属性综合评价决策体系；在此基础上，利用生命周期分析法和群智能优化理论，综合能源、负荷、指标、环境因素，研究分布式冷热电联供系统多维度一体化结构设计方法；构建分层分级的多自主体控制架构，结合动态电价、气候以及基于混沌时间序列的预测数据，研究多时间尺度源荷协同优化调度策略。项目研究成果将切实推动分布式冷热电联供系统以及生物质能源的发展和应用。

为解决能源紧缺和环境污染的全球性问题，本研究针对可再生能源分布式冷热电联供系统开展了建模、一体化设计、协同控制研究以及仿真与实验验证。对于可再生能源分布式冷热电联供系统，准确建立了供能系统模型，完善了多属性综合评价体系，给出了分布式供能系统多维度一体化设计的方法，方法涵盖系统结构、容量和运行方式的设计。提出了一套基于PCA-EEMD-LSTM的能源预测模型，以及基于GA-DP的系统运行优化模型，保证了分布式供能系统的高效稳定经济运行。本项目所研究的以生物质能为主的可再生能源分布式供能系统是涵盖多种能源的复杂系统，“源”、“荷”及“储”之间相互影响和制约，电能与不同品位的热/冷能共存，多种能量流之间同样存在着强耦合特性。基于上述特征，本项目建立了联供系统整体动态模型，采用主动式优化的思路，实现系统优化设计和多时间尺度源荷协同调度；搭建了系统运行仿真软件平台、能源管理与运行控制的软硬件平台，建设了基于30kW生物质气内燃发电机组的冷热电联供试验系统。该项研究的成果不仅对我国发展分布式冷热电联供系统具有重要的理论意义，而且对推动分布式供能的实际应用具有重要的现实意义。