利率市场化结构效应的分层传导与区域金融异质性风险防范研究

With the high quality-development of economy, it is very crucial to balance the traditional monetary policy in promoting growth and reducing leverage. So, with the central bank introduced structural monetary policy tools (PSL) into the structural elements for the policy, promoting the market-oriented interest rate reform is endowed with a new connotation in the new era, which will face the difficulties on structure effect of interest rate liberalization and the choice of policy instruments, and the effect of layered transmission mechanism will determine the effectiveness of the new monetary policy framework. The preliminary research projects found that exposed the benchmark interest rate liberalization cannot recover the economic structure distortions; no matter it is an indirect or direct financing market. Additionally, the regional investment risk coefficient and macroeconomic volatility risk premium will lead a marginal effect on the interest rate conduction efficiency, and there is a negatively correlated between the total amount of government investment plan and structure effect and each regional investment and financing scale, which the regional imbalance will accelerate the mismatch of resources. Therefore, this project, firstly, based on the construction of regional differences in the constraint of the interest rate transmission general equilibrium model, the spatial effect of dynamic model and dynamic simulation model of the policy interest rate liberalization reform path selection, combining with the supporting measures, the effect of policy implementation and tool selection and feasibility analysis. Then carry out a dynamic simulation analysis on the actual data at the regional level. Finally, provide the policy basis for the regional applicability of interest rate liberalization and the prevention of regional financial risk.

经济高质量发展，亟需货币政策在促增长和降杠杆间找到平衡点，推动利率市场化改革被新时代赋予新内涵，当央行推出结构性货币政策工具（PSL等）为政策注入结构元素后，必然面临利率市场化结构效应传导和政策工具选择的问题。其效应分层传导机制顺畅将决定新货币政策框架的有效性。项目前期研究认为无论在间接或直接融资市场，基准利率放开无法改善经济结构扭曲程度，区域投资项目风险系数与宏观经济波动导致的风险溢价对利率传导效率产生边际影响，政府投资计划其总量和结构效应将与各区域投融资规模产生负相关，区域非均衡性会加速资源错配程度；据此，本项目通过构建区域差异条件约束的利率传导一般均衡模型、空间效应动态模型和动态政策模拟模型对利率市场化改革的路径选择、配套措施、政策实施效果和工具选择及可行性进行论证，结合区域层面的实际数据为样本进行的动态模拟分析，为利率市场化的区域适用性及宏观和微观主体防范区域金融风险提供政策依据。

当前中国经济转向高质量发展阶段，面临需求收缩、供给冲击和预期转弱三重叠加压力，外部环境动荡进一步加剧了金融经济社会风险，因此，课题组在构建了基于区域差异条件约束的利率传导一般均衡模型的基础上，从微观、中观、宏观和结构角度对利率市场化结构效应传导及其所引致的企业债务性、产业外部性、经济周期性、政策对冲等异质性风险进行了理论和实证分析，在此基础上对利率市场化结构效应的分层传导与金融风险之间的互动关系进行了实证分析和动态政策模拟，研究发现：第一，利率市场化下能够较好矫正原有利率管制和信贷歧视导致的金融市场价格扭曲，缓解资金供需双方信息不对称问题，从而降低企业债务融资成本，为企业技术创新、数字化转型等实体经济发展提供资金支持，促进企业脱虚向实，进而缓解企业债务性风险。而且随着区域经济发展水平、金融部门发展水平、地方政府政策等的不同，利率市场化结构效应的发挥也呈现出异质性特征。第二，利率市场化能够显著缓解制造业、生产性服务业产业外部性风险，但对于农业和生活性服务业而言却收效甚微。而且利率市场化结构效应的发挥与区域金融基础条件存在正向关系。第三，利率市场化改革有利于改善区域要素资源（资本、劳动力、技术等）价格扭曲，提高区域要素配置效率，可以在一定程度上抵消经济周期的影响，缓解由于杠杆率过高和结构性失衡产生的经济周期性风险。第四，利率市场化的结构效应传导呈现出区域互动特征（具有空间相关性），而地方政府财政状况的好坏，直接关系到地方政府财政政策的实施力度及其与货币政策的协同效果，进而导致利率市场化对政策对冲性风险的缓解效果也有所不同。最后，将成本、行业、要素、区域差异都纳入模型进行动态模拟后，利率市场化结构效应的分层传导整体而言能显著改善金融资源配置，防范区域金融风险。本研究为利率市场化的区域适用性及宏观和微观主体防范区域金融风险提供了政策依据。