金融产业链效应与区域产业结构差异及其空间扩散的实证研究

With China's economic transition entering a difficult period in 2013, enhancing the efficiency of capital allocation has become an important strategic issue, which will break China's economic transition constraint after defining the central decision-making on the reform of financial industry and the adjustment of industrial structure. During this process, the financial industrial chain is the core factor to influence the formation and allocation efficiency of each industry. The preliminary study presents that the effect of financial industry chain has two different aspects, including industrial capital induced and spatial earnings forecasts. Meanwhile, improving the industrial chain can strengthen the acquisition of complementary financial resources. These are the two major factors to influence the improvement of regional industrial structure.The empirical study will focus on the relevancy between the different effects of financial industry chain and the industrial structure. Based on SEM and SAR model, this project develops SDM model to study the influence of spatial diffusion of the financial industrial chain effects on regional industrial structure,and then depicts the directivity of the optimal allocation of financial resource and the diffusion of financial industry chain effect to the adjustment of regional industrial structure by using the direct and indirect path in order to seek the empirical proof of financial supports to the adjustment of regional industrial structure. On these grounds,this paper provides a relevant insights on theories and policies, including reverse guidence of financial industrial chain to industrial capital movement, and therefore forms basic political tendence about the effect of financial industry chain on the equilibrium configuration of industrial structure.

2013年中国经济转型压力凸显，当金融产业改革与产业结构调整已然成为中央决策层鲜明的调控思路后，提升资本配置效率即成破除中国经济转型约束的重要战略问题。金融产业链是影响产业间资本形成与配置效率的核心因素；项目前期研究认为，金融产业链效应具有产业资本诱导以及空间临近的收益预期作用，产业链完善可强化补充性金融资源的获取，二者均对区域产业结构升级起着重要的作用。本项目实证研究中国金融产业链效应差异与产业结构的相关性；在SEM和SAR模型基础上，引入空间杜宾模型（SDM）考察金融产业链效应空间扩散对区域产业结构变动的影响；进而从直接与间接路径刻画金融资源的优化配置和金融产业链效应扩散对区域产业结构调整的指向性，寻找金融支持区域产业结构调整的实证依据。据此，本项目对区域产业规划、金融产业链对产业资本流动反向引导等理论和政策问题提出相应见解，并因此形成金融产业链效应对产业结构均衡配置的基本政策趋势。

新时代背景下，“深化金融体制改革，增强金融服务实体经济能力”已经成为我国金融建设的主要方向。本课题围绕着“金融产业链效应影响”、 “区域产业结构调整”与“空间扩散估计”这三个互动性问题开展了研究，首先构建了关于金融产业链效应的理论模型，并从微观、中观、宏观和结构四个层面对金融产业链效应的演化进行了分析；进而通过金融产业链的四种链条形态（金融价值链、金融企业链、金融供需链、金融空间链），基于全国、中部、广东省和广州案例，利用1993-2015年间的时间序列数据和面板数据，对“金融产业链效应影响”以及“区域产业结构调整”之间的关系进行了研究，在此基础上课题组进一步利用传统计量方法（协整分析、面板回归分析）和空间计量方法（SAR、SEM、SDM模型）对金融产业链效应空间扩散与区域产业结构变动之间的关系进行了实证分析，研究结果表明：完善金融产业链和提高其配置资本的效率，有助于促进实体产业成长和产业结构升级；但无论是从全国层面还是区域层面来看，中国都存在金融产业链失衡、投融资效率底下等问题；因此，课题组认为，我国应实施差别化金融政策、加强利率市场化和金融机构改革、实现融资渠道多元化、加大对科技创新的金融支持、推动金融资源配置与区域产业政策相结合，促进金融资源配置与区域经济增长和产业结构的协调发展。