登革热疫情传播规律及防控策略研究

The main purpose of this project is to construct an extended SEIR metapopulation model to simulate the process of the spread of dengue fever. Based on the surveillance data of dengue fever in China, combined with available data on weather and environment, transportation, social economy, an extended SEIR metapopulation model is constructed to simulate the process of the spread of dengue fever. Once developed, we can utilize the model to (1) analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of the disease and quantify the spatial and temporal characteristics of dengue fever pandemic; (2) identify the determinants of the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue fever in China; (3) calculate or estimate key epidemic parameters such as the reproduction number, serial interval and the infectious period of the disease...The model will be used to analyze the dynamics of disease spread under a range of demographics and containment strategies. This will enable us to test the relative performance of multiple sets of preventative and reactive control measures proposed by policy makers in China. A simulation system will be developed based on these models to provide a user-friendly interface for model development, epidemic simulation and temporal-spatial analysis under different sceneries. ..This project is inter-disciplinary in nature, integrating epidemiological theory with applied policy driven results. The results from this project will utilize complicated mathematical epidemiology to provide accurate policy-relevant advice that will allow for monitoring and forecasting in the event of a future outbreak of dengue fever, as well as suggesting control policies to minimize the spread of disease.

本项目拟基于中国登革热疫情以及气象、环境、人口流动、社会经济和防控措施等相关背景知识及数据，运用统计方法筛选出登革热疫情传播的主要影响因素，并量化分析相关作用规律，进而建立起符合我国实际情况的登革热时空传播模型；综合运用Bootstrap再取样、最小二乘拟合和极大似然估计等方法，获取潜伏期、传染期和基本再生数等疫情相关参数和指标的估值及置信区间。在此基础上，构建不同尺度和场景下的登革热时空传播动态模型，并基于地理信息系统(GIS)将该模型开发成一套能模拟我国登革热时空传播动态的软件。本项目能够实现数学与流行病学的交叉和融合，在理论上能够丰富和完善登革热数学模型及相关参数估计方法；在应用上能揭示登革热时空传播规律并获得相关参数估值，进而为疫情预警和防控措施的制定与评估提供科学方法和理论依据。

我国登革热疫情具有输入性和突发性特征，通常表现为较短时期内较大范围的暴发性流行。本项目基于中国登革热疫情以及气象、环境、人口流动、社会经济和防控措施等相关背景知识及数据，建立了一个多斑块的通过人口迁移连接在一起的人蚊耦合仓室模型，较好地描述了登革热疫情爆发时在时间和空间上的传播动态行为；综合运用Bootstrap再取样、最小二乘拟合和极大似然估计等方法，获取潜伏期、传染期和基本再生数等疫情相关参数和指标的估值及置信区间；在此基础上，构建不同尺度和场景下的登革热时空传播动态模型，并基于地理信息系统(GIS)将该模型开发成一套能模拟我国登革热时空传播动态的软件，量化分析和评估了温度、光照、降雨等环境因素和蚊虫控制、人口流动管控、人员隔离等各种防控措施对登革热疫情传播的影响；运用统计方法筛选出登革热疫情传播的主要影响因素，并量化分析了相关作用规律。..本项目是数学与流行病学的交叉和融合而产生的应用型研究，在理论上能够丰富和完善登革热数学模型及相关参数估计方法；在应用上能揭示登革热时空传播规律并获得相关参数估值，以及提取出疫情主要影响因素及相关作用规律，进而为疫情预警和防控措施的制定与评估提供科学方法和理论依据。