新发展理念下我国企业升级的税制驱动和税制扭曲：基于“营改增”视角的理论与实证研究

The Chinese economy has achieved high growth since the Tax Sharing Reform in 1994, while the investment-driven has gotten “low-end locking” and “race to the bottom”. Optimize the tax system for enterprise upgrading has become a critical task for supply-side structural reform and high-quality economic growth. However, previous literatures pay little attention to the cause of enterprise upgrading in China from perspective of tax system. Although Business Tax Replaced with VAT Reform (VAT Reform) should have a significant effect on industrial division by optimizing the tax system, give preference to physical capital and twin-track policy in general taxpayer and small-scale taxpayer of VAT, which should have distortion risk on factor allocation and enterprise upgrading in China. The existing theories of enterprise upgrading is difficult to accurately answer the impact of this major tax practice on enterprise upgrading. First, we will build index system of enterprise upgrading in a new vision for development of China. Second, we will construct a factor allocation model with change in the prices of factors of production and expand the enterprise upgrading model on the practice of VAT reform, which will provide the theoretical analysis of the effect of VAT reform on enterprise upgrading. Third, with the micro-level data and micro-econometric method, we will evaluate the micro-effect and microscopic mechanisms of VAT reform on enterprise upgrading based on the perspective of factor allocation. At last we will provide some political suggestion associated with VAT reform to improve efficiency of production factors allocation and enterprise upgrading.

分税制改革以来，中国经济在取得高速增长的同时正面临内部投资驱动“低端锁定”和外部“逐底竞争”双重风险，通过完善税制实现企业升级，已然成为推动供给侧结构性改革和经济高质量发展的关键性路径。然而，鲜有文献从税制角度对中国企业升级的成因进行系统研究。虽然“营改增”对于优化税制、推动产业分工可能具有驱动效果，但是资本偏向性和“双轨制”纳税人的税制设计对于要素配置和企业升级具有扭曲风险，现有企业升级理论难以准确回答这一重大税制实践对企业升级的影响。首先，本课题将重构符合我国新发展理念的企业升级指标。其次，在要素配置模型基础上引入“营改增”要素价格调整冲击，并结合中国税制实践对企业升级模型进行拓展，解析“营改增”对企业升级的理论机理。再次，基于要素配置视角，利用大样本企业数据和微观计量评估方法多维度检验“营改增”对企业升级的微观效应和机制。最后从税制优化角度提出促进企业升级和要素配置效率的政策建议。

在新发展理念目标指引下，优化税制已成为推动企业转型升级和经济高质量发展的重要路径。本项目基于大样本微观企业数据和微观计量评估方法，按照“主要难题—制度成因—税制驱动—税制扭曲—税制效果—税制优化”研究框架，全面探究了“营改增”对企业升级的影响、机制和对策。基于主要难题维度，发现“营改增”加重了地方财政压力，提高了非税收入征管力度，从而显著增加了企业非税负担，抑制了企业转型升级。基于制度成因维度，发现样本时期的降费政策未能显著降低企业非税负担。基于税制驱动维度，一方面，发现在前向关联和后向关联较高的制造业企业，“营改增”促进了全要素生产率提升。另一方面，发现“营改增”显著降低了企业要素配置扭曲，随着试点范围的扩大，在改革后第3年要素配置效应实现最优。基于税制扭曲维度，一方面，发现试点期间的“营改增”政策显著弱化了劳动收入份额，主要成因在于资本要素偏向抵扣的税收设计而不是税率变化引致。另一方面，发现“营改增”加剧了地方政府财政压力，为了应对财政收入损失，地方政府加强了税收征管，放松了环境规制，短期内弱化了企业绿色转型升级。基于税制效果角度，发现“营改增”通过深化专业化分工、减轻税负、优化要素配置以及提高研发投资，显著推动了企业升级，其中质量升级效果突出，效率升级效果欠佳。最后从税制优化角度，提出了减轻企业税费负担，推动企业升级的政策建议。