罗非鱼产业技术效率与市场竞争力研究

China is the largest country in producing and exporting tilapia all over the world, thus tilapia is in the list of export products with comparative advantage. Under the pressure of more and more fierce market competition, its advantage is diminishing. Therefore, technical efficiency of tilapia industry is in urgent need of enhancement. Depending on the theories of technological innovation, technical efficiency, industrial economy and competitiveness, from the perspectives of industry, this project first employs the Structural Equation Model (SEM) to empirically analyze the path and extent that technical efficiency of tilapia industry affects its market competitiveness. Second, Stochastic Production Frontier Analysis (SFA) and Industry Correlation Analysis are applied to estimate and assess the technical efficiency of tilapia industry. Third, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Market Shares (MS) etc. are used to discover the domestic and overseas market competitiveness of tilapia industry. Fourth, comparative analysis targets at exploring the differences of technical efficiency and market competitiveness between southern coastal areas and eastern coastal areas, as well as the causes of the differences. Thus the relation between the market competitiveness and industrial technical efficiency is further testified. Last, Tobit model is hired in empirical analysis of relevant influencing factors on the technical efficiency of tilapia industry. In a word, the research findings will provide scientific evidence for decision-making on enhancing technical efficiency and market competitiveness of tilapia industry, since this project builds on adequate economic theories and proper empirical analysis. In this sense, this research is invaluable both in theory and practices.

我国是全球最大的罗非鱼生产国和出口国，罗非鱼被国家列为出口优势产品。目前市场竞争日趋激烈，优势地位岌岌可危，罗非鱼产业技术效率亟待提高。本项目以技术效率理论、产业经济理论和竞争力理论为基础，从产业角度，运用结构方程模型实证分析罗非鱼产业技术效率对其市场竞争力的影响路径和影响程度；运用随机前沿生产模型方法和产业关联分析法测算与评价罗非鱼产业技术效率；运用显性比较优势、市场占有率等方法测算与评价罗非鱼产业国际市场竞争力与国内市场竞争力；运用比较分析等方法剖析我国南部沿海地区与东部沿海地区罗非鱼产业技术效率与市场竞争力的差异及原因，进一步论证罗非鱼产业技术效率与市场竞争力之间的关系；运用Tobit模型实证分析相关影响因素对罗非鱼产业技术效率的影响方向与影响程度。本项目研究以理论为基础，以实证为依据，将为提高罗非鱼产业技术效率和市场竞争力的决策提供科学依据，因而具有显著的理论和现实意义。

罗非鱼是世界水产业重点发展的淡水养殖鱼类，要突破罗非鱼产业发展瓶颈，就要提高产业技术效率，加强产业体系的协调运作，从整个产业层面上寻求技术改进与创新，以提高罗非鱼产业市场竞争力。本课题的研究主要从以下六个方面展开：（1）综合评价罗非鱼产业技术效率和市场竞争力；（2）理清罗非鱼产业技术效率和市场竞争力之间的关系；（3）深入挖掘影响罗非鱼产业技术效率的影响因素；（4）根据罗非鱼产业技术效率和市场竞争力划分中国罗非鱼生产优势产区；（5）对提高罗非鱼产业技术效率和市场竞争力提供对策建议。通过对海南、广东、广西、江苏、浙江、山东等六个省份的实地调研、国家罗非鱼产业技术体系各示范县监测点养殖户调研以及从已有数据库收集数据，并利用随机前沿模型（SFA）；数据包络分析（DEA）；综合指标体系评价；SWOT分析；灰色定权聚类模型；CMS（固定配额模型）、Rotterdam模型、灰色系统GM(1,1)模型；相关性分析；联立方程模型；效率损失模型；Tobit模型；倾向匹配打分模型（PSM）进行分析；主要结论有：（1）我国罗非鱼产业技术效率为0.628，存在较大损失，这种效率损失表现在养殖、加工等各个环节，并且不管是主产省、非主产省、还是不同养殖模式下都存在较为严重的技术效率损失；尽管我国罗非鱼产量和产值逐年上升，但是产业利润逐年下降使得产业竞争力呈现下滑趋势。其中，罗非鱼产业在国际市场上竞争力不足的主要原因是出口价格低下，而生产成本逐年上涨，使得出口利润下降；国内市场竞争力不足的主要原因是市场需求不足、生产者人力资本低下以及非主产区在资源禀赋方面的劣势；（2）罗非鱼产业技术效率和市场竞争力之间存在相互促进的关系，提高技术效率有利于提升罗非鱼产业市场竞争力，是扭转罗非鱼市场竞争力下滑的关键；（3）罗非鱼加工企业精深加工能力、养殖者个性特征、生产技术水平以及外部政策环境都会对罗非鱼产业技术效率产生影响；（4）我国罗非鱼养殖主产区相比较非主产区具有比较优势，南部沿海的罗非鱼生产技术效率和市场竞争力均显著高于东部沿海；（5）今后应当从提高加工企业实力、提高生产者素质等多途径提升罗非鱼产业技术水平，进而提升罗非鱼产业的技术效率和市场竞争力。