基于不确定理论的传染病传播动力学建模、分析及应用

Various uncertainties are accompanied by the spread of epidemics. It is a basic and crucial project that epidemic modeling and control under uncertain environment. The aim of this project is to establish a theoretical approach in order to study and analyze the epidemic by using the uncertainty theory, which involves theoretical analysis and practical application. Theoretical research is trying to form an uncertain epidemic theory, which includes the following three parts. A series of uncertain epidemic models are formulated based on uncertain processes. Then some properties of the model are analyzed and the solution algorithm was designed. In the application research, the uncertain epidemic model and its algorithm are applied to the real epidemic prevention and control, further the epidemic warning, prediction and risk analysis are given based on expert experience data. This project devotes to provide some theoretical supports for the decision-making of epidemic prevention and control in some degree.

传染病传播过程中伴随着各种各样的不确定性。因此不确定环境下的传染病建模控制研究是一项基本而重要的课题。本项目旨在借助不确定理论这一数学工具建立一套传染病研究分析的理论方法,研究内容涉及理论分析和实际应用两个方面。理论研究旨在形成不确定传染病理论,具体包括构建一系列基于不确定过程的不确定传染病模型、研究模型的性质及求解算法。应用研究考虑将不确定传染病模型应用于实际疫情控制中, 根据专家经验数据给出疫情预警、预测、风险分析, 为疾病预防控制、决策提供理论依据。

传染病传播过程会受到不确定性因素的影响，因此本项目主要探讨了如何运用不确定理论这一数学工具对传染病传播过程中的不确定性进行建模控制，这是一项基本而重要的课题。研究内容从理论分析和实际应用两个方面展开。理论研究主要包括构建不确定传染病模型、研究模型的性质及求解算法，进而形成了不确定传染病理论体系。应用研究旨在将不确定传染病模型应用于实际疫情控制中。结合疫情数据，给出疫情预警、预测以及风险分析。本项目应用不确定理论为疾病预防控制提供一定的理论支撑。