基于分阶段传播的跨物种传染病传播动力学研究

With the spread of the Ebola, cross-species infection has once again aroused people's attention. Study of infectious diseases across species propagation mechanism is expected to provide a theoretical basis for controlling the spread of such diseases. Transmission mechanism of this project to cross-species infection model as basis, respectively, using the differential equations and computer simulation methods to establish the corresponding differential transmission dynamics models. Cross-species infectious diseases at different stages have different propagation law, and the stage is a stage before the foundation to achieve establish a phased transmission dynamics model based on the propagation characteristics. Initially, the spread of infectious diseases occurs among animals only, when the spread of infectious disease characterized by having a single species of infectious diseases in infected animals. As the virus mutates, the humans will be infected by animals with a cross-species transmission of infectious diseases characteristic. Cross-species transmission is mainly through contact or prey between animals and people. Virus continues to variation, the infectious will become human transmission of infectious diseases. This time, the spread of infectious diseases is characterized by a single species among humans. Based on this epidemic model, we discuss the impact of the duration of the first two stages of the spread of infectious diseases. In addition; effects of controlling time and strength on the results are also discussed.

随着埃博拉病毒的蔓延，跨物种传染病再次引起人们的关注。研究跨物种传染病的传播机制有望为控制此类传染病的传播提供理论依据。本项目以跨物种传染病模型的传播机制为基础，分别利用微分方程方法和计算机仿真模拟方法建立相应传播动力学模型。跨物种传染病在不同阶段有不同的传播规律，且后一个阶段是以前一个阶段为基础来实现的，根据这一传播特点建立分阶段的传播动力学模型。初期，传染病只在动物种群内部传播，这时的传染病在动物种群中具有单物种传染病的传播特征；随着病毒发生变异，传染病会传染给人，此时在第一阶段基础上要引入跨物种传播特征，其传播途径主要有接触、捕食以及接触捕食均传染等三种；病毒继续变异，可能发展为人传人的传染病，这时的在第二阶段基础上需要引入人与人之间的单物种传染病传播。以该传染病模型为基础，本项目研究了前两个阶段的持续时间以及采取控制措施的时间、方式及强度对传染病传播的影响。

本项目以跨物种传染病为研究背景，针对跨物种传染病模型的传播机制，分别利用微分方程方法和计算机仿真模拟方法建立相应传播动力学模型，并展开深入研究。根据跨物种传染病在不同阶段有不同传播规律的特点，建立分阶段的传播动力学模型；考虑耐药基因NDM-1的特殊传播机制，建立微分方程和计算机仿真模拟模型；研究带有NDM-1耐药基因细菌的传播，进而为控制此类细菌传播提供理论依据；研究了超级细菌在人群中的传播动力学问题，建立了超级细菌在病人间平行转移的三个数学模型。此外，还深入研究了与传染病传播类似的谣言传播机制，分析参数变化对谣言传播的影响效果，研究结果为控制谣言传播提供了理论支撑。除了研究传播动力学之外，还在演化动力学方面开展的深入的研究，从研究手段和方法上对本项目提供支撑，并对本项目内容进行拓展。