基于不确定理论的传染病传播动力学建模、分析及应用

Various uncertainties are accompanied by the spread of epidemics. In this project, uncertainty theory is used to model and analyze the uncertain issue in epidemic transmission, and further some prevention and control measures are given. First, a series of uncertain epidemic transmission dynamics models are constructed according to the different uncertainties by using the uncertain processes. Then, the properties of the model are studied, such as existence, uniqueness, stability and so on. Furthermore, the analytical solution or numerical solution of the system is obtained by using the analytical method and the a-path in uncertainty theory. Finally, the epidemic technical indicators, such as disease risk indicator, peak value, peak time and incidence scale, are presented by using uncertain parameter estimation based on the current available and expert experience data, and feasible control measures are suggested according to the optimal control theory. In this project, the uncertainty theory is applied to the modeling analysis and early warning control of infectious diseases, which devotes to provide some theoretical supports for the disease prevention and control and decision-making in some degree.

传染病传播过程中会受到各种各样的不确定性因素影响。本项目运用不确定理论对传染病传播过程的不确定性扰动进行建模分析，进而提出控制措施。首先，针对传染病传播过程中不确定性因素，运用不确定过程构建一系列的不确定传染病传播动力学模型。然后研究分析模型性态，如解的存在性、唯一性、稳定性等。进一步运用不确定分析方法、不确定a-路求得系统解析解或数值解。最后根据现有数据和专家经验数据，运用不确定参数估计得到未知参数值，结合大量仿真模拟对传染病传播风险指标、峰值、达峰时间、传染规模等疫情技术指标给出预测,结合最优控制理论提出切实可行的控制措施。本项目将不确定理论应用于传染病建模分析和预警控制，为疾病预防控制提供一定的理论支撑。

传染病传播过程中的确会受到不确定性因素的影响。本项目运用不确定理论对传染病传播过程的不确定性扰动进行研究。首先构建了不确定传染病传播动力学模型，其中不确定扰动运用不确定过程刻画。然后运用不确定分析等方法研究研究了模型性态。最后在现有数据基础上，结合不确定统计对具体传染病(例如：COVID-19,诺如病毒等)传播风险指标、峰值、达峰时间、传染规模等疫情技术指标给出预测，并给出防控建议。本项目将不确定理论应用于传染病建模分析和预警控制，为疾病预防控制提供一定的理论支撑。