城市建筑集群综合能源系统多维协同规划模型和方法

As a major urban energy consumption terminal, the multi-energy demands of building clusters generally adopt the existing supply model of separate planning and independent operation, which has caused problems of overly high energy costs and low utilization efficiency. To this end, it is of great significance to fully coordinate the multi-energy types, including power, gas, and heat (cooling), of integrated energy systems for urban building clusters and the complementary substitutive characteristics of multi-supply links, including generation, load, and storage, as well as establish mathematical models and methods for multi-dimensional collaborative planning of integrated energy systems. Firstly, considering the heat dissipation characteristics and behavioral characteristics, the individual energy consumption and demand response characteristics of urban buildings are dug into and analyzed. Then, the in-depth modeling on multiple links of integrated energy systems for urban building clusters based on terminal energy stations, including generation, supply, consumption and storage, is carried out; secondly, the fast-varying characteristics of power system and the slow-varying characteristics of gas/heat (cooling) system are fully considered so that the random operation simulation technique and probabilistic regulation capability analysis methods of integrated energy systems for urban building clusters are realized; next, a model for reliability of multi-energy integration is established and the probability evaluation method for total load capability based on reliability is proposed; finally, based on the goals of minimizing energy supply cost and maximizing energy supply reliability and energy consumption efficiency, a multi-dimensional collaborative optimization model for planning and operation of multi-energy types and multi-supply links in terminal energy stations is established. In addition, a solution algorithm based on game theory, alternative optimization and uncertainty planning algorithms is presented.

作为城市重要的能源消耗终端，建筑集群的多能源需求通常采用单独规划、独立运行的既有供应模式，造成了能源成本虚高和利用效率低下等问题。为此，充分协调城市建筑集群综合能源系统中电/气/热(冷)多能源类型及源-荷-储多供应环节之间的互补替代特征，构建综合能源系统多维协同规划的数学模型和方法。首先，考虑热耗散特性和行为特性，挖掘城市建筑单体用能与需求响应特征，开展基于终端能源站的建筑集群综合能源系统产-供-消-储多环节深度建模；其次，充分考虑电的快变系统特征和气/热(冷)的慢变系统特征，实现建筑集群综合能源系统随机运行模拟技术和概率可调能力分析方法；再次，建立多能源综合可靠性模型，提出基于可靠性的综合负载能力概率评估方法；最后，以能源供应成本最低、供能可靠性和能源利用效率最高等为目标，构建终端能源站多能源类型与多供应环节规划运行多维度协同优化模型，提出基于博弈、交替优化、不确定规划等算法的求解方法。

作为城市重要的能源消耗终端，建筑集群的多能源需求通常采用单独规划、独立运行的既有供应模式，造成了能源成本虚高和利用效率低下等问题。为此，项目针对建筑用能特性与系统建模、运行优化与可调能力分析、可靠性与负载能力评估、多维协同规划等方面开展了深入的研究工作并形成了丰富的研究成果。首先，提出了考虑机理驱动与数据驱动相结合的建筑用能特性建模方法；构建了基于精细化热网模型的电热综合能源系统时序潮流仿真模型。其次，分别针对园区和乡村两个运行场景，提出了考虑建筑虚拟储能特性与用户需求响应补贴机制的电热综合能源系统联合调度方法；构建了综合能源系统对外可调能力的定义与模型，提出了可调能力区间时序递推方法。再次，提出了考虑多能耦合作用及差异化负荷削减策略的电热综合能源系统供能可靠性评估方法；构建了建筑综合能源系统供能能力的定义及可行与可靠供能区间模型，并提出了区间边界描述方法。最后，提出了计及能源品位差异的综合能源系统能源利用效率评估方法；提出了考虑负荷特性互补及需求响应的能源站与下级管网协同规划方法。