世界能源权益网络的组织模式、运行机制与权力重构

At present, profound changes have taken place in the global energy geopolitics. The global energy power is being reconstructed, from "oil rights" to multidimensional "energy power". Various energy actors, such as energy-consuming countries, producing countries, international organizations and multinational energy companies are participating together and forming a complex energy power networks under the impact of energy supply and demand changes, global climate change, renewable energy development, global energy governance and so on. This project intends to construct a multi-layered, multi-agent and multi-factor energy power network based on the analysis of the energy power and the relationships. Firstly, multidimensional energy powers and their interrelations will be defined by the relationship-rules. In this step, Delineation of power boundaries of the network will be identified by a set of quantitative methods for the different energy power flows. Secondly, the power network structure, function, organization model and their evolution will be analyzed using the complex networks indicators, including degree, connectivity, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, modularity, robustness and so on. Also the core-periphery structure, dual-core structure, multiple groups and nested structure will be analysis to explain the organization rules of the energy power networks. Thirdly, the key influence factors of network evolution will be identified based on the analysis of multiple factors, and the strength and conduction path of the key factors will be calculated by regression model. Then we will summarize and interpret the network operation mechanism under the combined effect of multiple factors. Fourthly, we will capture the global major energy issues which may have significant impacts on the global energy power networks, and simulate the impact process and strength. Restriction mode of energy power will be summed up after the simulation of American energy independence, Central Asian energy game under the Belt and Road Initiative, renewable energy development and global energy governance under G20. The fifth step, we will analyze China's power structure and power interrelations in the network, and put forward the power configuration and suggestions for China's participation in the global energy governance system. Based on the above analysis, the scientific cognition of the global energy power networks and it operation mechanism are expected to enrich the theory and method of geo-political research. The suggestions of China's national energy security will be provided based on the project research.

当前全球范围内的能源形势与能源权力正在重构，从“油权”拓展到多维“能权”，能源消费国、生产国、国际组织、跨国能源公司等多种利益行为体共同参与、交织形成了复杂能源权益关系。本项目拟以能源权益及其相互关联为切入点：首先，界定多维“能权”属性和权益关联的“关系-规则”，构建多层次、多主体、多要素的能源权益网络，分析网络的结构、功能与组织模式。其次，甄别网络演化的关键影响因素及其传导路径、作用强度，阐释多要素综合作用下的网络运行机制。第三，捕获全球重大能源热点事务，模拟热点事务对权益网络的冲击过程，总结能源权力重构模式。第四，解析中国在网络中的权力结构与权益关联，提出中国参与全球能源治理体系的权力配置及其路径优化策略。以此，科学认知世界能源权益网络的组织模式和运行机制，丰富能源地缘政治研究的理论与方法，为我国国家能源安全提供科学借鉴。

本项目按照研究计划超额完成了既定目标。在世界能源格局和能源贸易网络研究的基础上，针对全球能源形势和能源治理体系下“能权”发生的重大变革，聚焦能源行为体之间的复杂能源权益关联，对能源权益网络的结构、功能与组织模式等进行研究。从能流空间和权益网络的视角出发，结合经济地理和复杂网络的研究范式，按照“网络规则—结构功能—组织模式—运行机制—情景模拟—优化路径”的思路，做出了一系列研究成果，科学认知了世界能源权力流动的基本特征、组织模式与机制，并提出了中国在世界能源权益网络中的权力配置及优化路径。共发表学术论文38篇，其中SCI/SSCI论文21篇，提交的3份关于国家能源安全的咨询报告得到中办采纳，拓展了研究的实践意义。成功举办了“世界能源地理与国家安全”学术研讨会，并在《自然资源学报》组织出版了同名研究专辑，在中国地理学会中国地理学大会、世界地理大会和世界政治经济地理大会、经济地理专业委员会年会、国际区域研究协会中国分会年会，以及全球经济地理大会、英国皇家地理学会年会等国内外学术会议上就学术成果进行了广泛交流。本项目还培养了多名博士生。项目负责人获得了国家自然科学基金优秀青年科学基金项目资助，还成为了国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目的研究骨干、自然资源部高层次科技创新人才工程（国土空间规划行业）团队成员，1名项目成员入选了中国科学院青年创新促进会成员。代表性研究成果得到了中国科学院英文新闻宣传推介，发表的多篇论文入选领跑者5000—中国精品期刊顶尖学术论文（F5000）或被中国人民大学复印报刊资料全文转载。