优势战略性矿产资源出口贸易优化模型设计与政策模拟研究-以稀土为例

Preponderant strategic mineral resources are the key guarantee for economic and political security of every country. How to achieve optimization of export trade based on sustainable supplies for resources to native market is an important issue currently concerned widely. Taking rare earths as a case, this project forecasts the total amount of rare earth export with the construction of dynamic CGE model based on sustainable supplies for rare earths to native market and optimizes the geographic structure of rare earth export with the construction of multi-objective optimization model. Then, according to above study results, under the guidance of some theories like resources economics, industrial organization, international trade as well as public policy and so on, this project analyzes policy demands and designs policy options and finally provides some proposals of rare earths export optimization policies based on the simulation assessment of policy effects. This project focuses on three key science issues to achieve the innovation of theories and methods: ①based on the resources and environment constraint and demands of the economic and industry development, constructing dynamic CGE model; ②in view of the complexity of rare earth export trade, constructing multi-objective optimization model with the optimization of economic and political benefits; ③analyzing policy demand and designing policy options based on the control of rare earths export and the optimization options of the geographic structure of rare earths export. The results can help to develop theories and methods of resources economics, international trade as well as public policy, and meanwhile can play a role in rare earth industry development and trade in practice.

优势战略性矿产资源是各国经济与政治安全的重要保障，如何在保证资源对本国可持续供给的基础上实现出口贸易优化是当前广泛关注的重要课题。本研究以稀土为例，通过构建动态CGE模型，预测在保证对本国可持续供给基础上的稀土出口总量；通过构建多目标优化模型，优化稀土出口地理结构；基于以上研究结果，以资源经济、产业组织、国际贸易、公共政策等理论为指导，分析政策需求并设计政策方案；在政策效果模拟评价的基础上，提出稀土出口贸易优化政策建议。本研究重点解决三个关键科学问题，实现理论与方法创新：①根据资源与环境约束及经济与产业发展需求，构建动态CGE模型；②基于稀土出口贸易的复杂性，构建经济和政治利益最优的稀土出口贸易多目标优化模型；③基于稀土出口总量控制和出口地理结构优化方案，分析政策需求，并设计政策方案。本研究成果将对资源经济、国际贸易和公共政策理论和方法研究贡献力量，对稀土产业发展与稀土贸易实践起指导作用。

稀土是我国优势战略性矿产资源，全球稀土供给主要依赖我国资源出口。在2014年“WTO稀土案”终裁后，我国稀土出口环节规制政策已于2015年取消，稀土出口贸易面临资源安全风险。本课题结合“WTO稀土案”背景和政策调整趋势，设计和构建稀土产业动态CGE模型，以经济增长与产业发展为预测情境，预测了2025年我国稀土产量、国内供给量与出口量；考虑政治、经济与产业因素，设计与构建多目标优化模型，从稀土元素与出口地理方向角度提出了出口贸易优化方案；基于政策工具理论，结合国外主要资源国稀土出口贸易政策和WTO规则，提出我国稀土出口贸易政策需求，并设计了未来10年我国稀土出口贸易优化政策方案；对动态CGE模型进行国别扩展，设置五类政策模拟情境，比较不同政策方案的宏观经济效应、社会福利效应、稀土产业效应与稀土出口地理方向效应，提出了未来10年我国稀土出口贸易优化政策建议。