工业能源效率、节能潜力与财税政策优化：以江西省为例

Energy-saving has become one of the most important tasks of China while it faces ever deepening energy and resource constraint in its economic development process, and the industry sector has become one of the most important areas of energy-saving. Based on provincial panel datas, we use three-stage DEA(Digital Envelop Analysis) model to measure the total factor energy efficiency of China and its 31 provinces and analyze the energy-saving potential of industry sector in Jiangxi province. Based on statistical datas of industry development, energy using and public finance, we use multiple regression analysis and co-integration analysis method to evaluate the quantitative effects of public finance and taxation policies on energy-saving of industry sector in Jiangxi province. Based on representative cases of industrial enterprises in Jiangxi province, we plan to conduct further analysis of the cost, benefit and effect of public finance and taxation policies. Using CGE model, conduct policy effect simulation of public finance and taxation policies. Then, drawing on experiences of other countries for reference, the research project seeks to design better schemes of public finance and taxation policies to reach the goal of energy-saving tasks in industry sector of China.

中国经济发展的能源资源约束日益加深，节能降耗成为中国经济工作的重要任务，而工业领域节能是节能工作的重点。本项目将采用省级面板数据，运用三阶段DEA（数据包络分析）方法，测算全国和各省（区、市）工业的全要素能源技术效率，分析江西省工业节能潜力。立足江西省工业、能源和财政税收统计数据，运用多元回归分析和协整分析方法，分别对现行财税政策促进江西工业节能降耗的政策效果进行定量分析和评价。立足江西省典型工业企业案例，深入分析节能财税政策的成本、收益及政策效果。采用静态可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型，对财税政策促进工业节能的预期效果进行政策模拟。在此基础上，借鉴国际经验，研究设计提高工业能源效率，挖掘节能潜力的财税政策优化方案，以达到工业能源消费强度和能源消费总量"双控制"的目标。

中国经济发展的能源资源约束日益加深，节能降耗成为中国经济工作的重要任务，而工业领域节能是节能工作的重点。本项目采用省级面板数据，比较全国和各省（区、市）工业的全要素能源技术效率，分析江西省工业节能潜力。在立足江西省工业、能源和财政税收统计数据的基础上，运用多元回归分析和协整分析方法，分别对财政政策和税收政策促进江西工业节能降耗的政策效果进行定量分析。基于江西省典型工业企业案例，深入分析节能财税政策的成本、收益及政策效果。在此基础上，借鉴国际经验，研究设计提高工业能源效率，挖掘节能潜力的财税政策优化方案。