农户能力和认知双重视角下山区聚落居民避灾选择机制研究——以三峡库区为例

The symbiosis of settlements and disasters is extremely common in the southwest mountainous area, China, and due to the great destruction, concealment, randomness and low frequency of mountainous disasters such as landslides and debris flows, it is necessary to reveal individual's willingness to avoid disaster and its mechanism facing the threaten of mountainous disaster. Focused on this settlement, we propose the theoretical hypothesis that farmers' choice of willingness to avoid disaster is directly or indirectly influenced by their capacity, personal cognition (risk perception + sense of place) and peer effects when faced with different levels of mountainous disaster threatens. Based on the recognition of sampling district and households, we obtain the nested data of “individual-farmer-settlement” through the questionnaire design and survey for the target object, and explore the mechanism of farmers' capacity, risk perception and a sense of place for their willingness to avoid disaster through hierarchical linear/non-linear models.We also skillfully reveal the contribution rate of different scales of heterogeneity and the homogeneity of attitude selection (peer effects) in the same framework.At the same time, we compare the willingness to avoid disaster of individual who are under the threat of disasters with individual's willingness to return who have been affected by disasters but been resettlement. Through this way, we intend to verify and supplement the foregoing conclusion.In the end, we put forward an integrated framework of behavior choice for individual to cope with mountainous disasters, and hope to provide focused guidance for settlements' disaster prevention, mitigation and optimization in the threatening area of mountainous hazards.

以三峡库区为代表的西南山区“聚落——灾害体”共生现象极为普遍，同时由于滑坡、泥石流等山地灾害具有强破坏性、隐蔽性、随机性和低频性，有必要揭示聚落个体在面对山地灾害威胁时的避灾意愿及其机制。本研究聚焦该类型山区聚落，提出理论假设——“面对不同级别山地灾害威胁时所作出的避灾态度选择，是直接或间接受着农户能力、个人认知（风险认知+地方感）、同群效应的影响”。在样本区和样本农户识别及抽样的基础上，通过量表设计和调研获得目标对象“个体-农户-聚落嵌套式数据”，使用分层线性/非线性模型定量探究农户能力、灾害风险认知、地方感对其避灾意愿决策的作用机制；本项目巧妙地在一个框架中同时揭示不同尺度的异质性和态度选择的同质性（同群效应）贡献率；同时引入了少数已受灾安置的个体回流意愿研究，验证和补充前述结论；最终提出山区聚落个体应对山地灾害的行为选择综合框架，为山区聚落的防灾减灾和聚落优化提供针对性引导建议。

以三峡库区为代表的西南山区“聚落一一灾害体”共生现象极为普遍，同时由于滑坡、泥石流等山地灾害具有强破坏性、隐蔽性、随机性和低频性，有必要揭示聚落个体在面对山地灾害威胁时的避灾意愿及其机制。本项目聚焦山地灾害威胁聚落的农户，从农户能力、灾害风险认知和地方感等多学科视角出发，构建避灾选择的表征和机制分析框架，针对性地设计了调研量表问卷体系；针对三峡库区的忠县、云阳县、万州区、丰都县等典型县的山地灾害威胁聚落开展了入户调研，获得了目标对象个体-农户-聚落嵌套式数据。依据调研数据，在方法建构，机制揭示，政策启示等方面取得一系列的成果，主要包括：引入地方依恋作为中介、自我效能作为调节因素，揭示了社会信任对地质灾害多发地区农民参与基于社区的灾害管理的影响；建立了基于农户能力视角的灾害韧性的评价框架，包含应对能力，适应能力和转型能力，分析了不同DRI等级的农户的应对能力、适应能力和转型能力的差异，揭示了三种能力的定量关系；建立了剥离干扰因素后的同群效应的分析框架，定量证明了同群效应和社会网络的存在和具体作用机制；灾害教育是农户能力和认知的重要因素，采用倾向得分匹配法系统分析了基于课堂培训、灾害知识应急宣传册和疏散演练三种形式的灾害教育对风险认知及其四个维度的影响；刻画了农户应对地质灾害的主要适应策略及其主要阻碍因子，揭示了应对策略不同的影响因素和效应；探索了农村居民的政府信任、风险感知和灾害保险购买意愿之间的关系，有助于让居民形成理性的灾害保险购买意愿，扩大保险需求。总体上，本项目的研究结论有助于理解这个复杂人地系统基本单元的风险适应机制，为山区聚落的防灾减灾和格局优化提供了科学启示。执行期内，课题组在学术期刊上共发表文章10篇，论文全部为SCI或SSCI收录；另外，出版专著1部；总体上超过了原定的考核量化指标。