灾害风险认知视角下山区聚落居民地方感与可持续生计耦合研究——以三峡库区为例

In the face of mountain hazards threat, many mountain settlements residents are not positive for settlement refactoring, the disaster risk cognitive of residents are influenced by some complex. In recent years, the theory of sense of place has provided a special research perspective to reveal “people-place” interaction. This research takes Three Gorges Reservoir Area as an example and on the basis of recognizing typical river basin samples which are facing mountain disasters threat, for the first time taking the disaster risk perception of mountain settlements residents as an angle of view into research of sense of place, and getting data of each dimension of sense of place including disaster risk perception through questionnaire interview, then using structural equation model to exploring the interaction relationship among the disaster risk perception, place dependence, place identity and place attachment, at last using qualitative analysis method to complement the construction of sense of place, then explaining the behavior choice of residents from the angle of place perception. At the same time, first combining livelihoods analysis and the theory of sense of place, then evaluating livelihood capital and livelihoods strategy of residents in the framework of sustainable livelihoods analysis, at last using structural equation model to exploring the coupling relations among livelihood capital, livelihoods strategy and sense of place, then revealing main influence mechanism of sense of place of mountain settlements residents. This research is a complement of connotation of sense of place of mountain settlements residents and measurement system and the revealing main influence mechanism of sense of place also can help promote mountain settlement refactoring from the perspective of "People-oriented" thinking.

面对山地灾害威胁等问题，许多山区聚落居民对于聚落重构并不积极，居民的灾害风险认知受到了某些情结的影响。近年来，地方感理论为揭示人地关系互动提供了一个特别的研究视角。本研究以三峡库区为例，在识别典型山地灾害威胁样本流域的基础上，首次在地方感研究中引入居民灾害风险认知视角，通过问卷访谈获取地方感各维度和山地灾害风险认知测度数据，利用结构方程模型探究灾害风险认知与地方依赖、地方认同、地方依恋之间的交互影响关系，并采用质性分析方法补充地方感的建构信息，进而从地方感知角度解释居民的行为选择。同时，将生计分析和地方感理论相结合，在可持续生计分析框架下评估农户生计资本和生计策略，并利用结构方程模型刻画生计资本、生计策略、地方感之间的耦合关系，从而揭示山区聚落居民地方感的主要影响机制。本研究是对山区聚落居民地方感内涵和测度体系的优化补充，对地方感影响机制的揭示也有助于从“人本”思维出发去推动山区聚落重构。

中国是一个山地大国，山区是我国可持续发展的关键区域以及全面建成小康社会不可或缺的国土空间。面对山地灾害的威胁，很多山区聚落农户明知道居住区还存在灾害的威胁，却不愿搬走，有的甚至在受灾搬迁后回流，陷入“受灾→迁移→回归→受灾”的怪圈。为了定量测定农户能力和认知基础上进一步揭示农户能力和认知在其行为决策中的具体作用机制。研究以三峡库区这一山地灾害与贫困双重交织的典型区域作为样本区，在定性研究基础上，从农户可持续生计、灾害风险认知和地方感多重学科视角出发，提出农户能力、认知和行为决策分析框架。通过分层等概率随机抽样和调查问卷的方式获得348户农户样本。构建计量经济模型探究山地灾害对农户造成的冲击及农户和社区的能力响应，农户能力、地方感和灾害风险认知在其搬迁、避灾准备和购买山地灾害保险行为决策中的具体作用机制。结果发现：1）山地灾害损失冲击、医疗开支冲击和房屋建设开支冲击是影响农户贫困脆弱性的主要因素，而储蓄和外出务工收入是农户缓解外部冲击的有效方式；社区应对能力是减弱农户生计脆弱性的有效手段，而自然资本和金融资本的缺乏以及生计策略的相对单一均不利于农户抵抗外部冲击。2）在不同情景中，农户能力、灾害风险认知和地方感对其搬迁决策的具体作用机制存在差异。在政府强迫搬迁命令下，农户搬迁意愿与灾害风险认知和地方感相关关系显著，而与农户能力相关关系不显著；在给定补贴条件下，农户自愿搬迁意愿与农户能力、灾害风险认知和地方感显著相关，灾害风险认知某些维度会通过对地方感某些维度以及农户能力某些维度产生调节效应而间接影响其搬迁决策。3）农户灾害风险认知、地方感和能力均是其是否有避灾准备的重要影响因素，除了直接效应外，农户能力还可通过灾害风险认知一些维度的调节，间接影响其避灾准备。4）农户能力、灾害风险认知和地方感均是其山地灾害保险购买行为决策的重要影响因素，然而农户灾害风险认知与地方感和能力间并不存在调节效应。 综合而言，本研究研究框架的设计，农户能力、灾害风险认知和地方感的具体测度及农户能力和认知在其行为决策中的具体作用机制均具有一定的探索性，可为其它同类研究提供参考借鉴。研究结果可以为区域精准扶贫、防灾减灾和灾害管理等政策的实施制定提供参考依据。