地震高风险区聚落农户避灾准备行为决策及其驱动机制研究

Represented by Sichuan province, major earthquake threatened areas have witnessed highly prevailing phenomenon of the co-existence of "settlement - disaster". The mountain settlements in the vast earthquake hazard threat areas have become the key areas for alleviating poverty and realizing rural rejuvenation. It is necessary to systematically reveal rural household disaster preparedness behaviors and the driving mechanism in the settlements in the face of the threat of earthquake disasters. This study focuses on mountain settlements in the high risk areas of earthquake disasters. On the basis of the existing research, it proposes the theoretical hypothesis that the disaster preparedness behavior decision-making of rural households is significantly different at different scales and is directly or indirectly influenced by individual cognition , family capacity and "peer effect" of other rural households in the settlements. Meanwhile, taking full account of the fracture zoning of regional earthquake disasters, the degree of disaster losses and the level of economic development, under the principle of random stratified equal probability sampling, it uses the in-depth interviews and questionnaires to obtain the nested data of "individual - rural household - settlement", and constructs the analysis framework of individual cognition – rural household capacity - disaster preparedness behavior selection. Moreover, it conducts the coupling of the "peer effect" among disaster preparedness behavior selections of settlements, constructing a stratified linear / non-linear econometric model to reveal the heterogeneity and contribution rate of the "peer effect" of disaster individual cognition, rural household capacity and settlement scale to disaster preparedness behavior selection of rural households. Eventually, the suggestions on the toughness disaster prevention system construction and the sustainable economic development of rural settlements in the earthquake hazard threat areas are pertinently put forward.

以四川为代表的地震灾害大省“聚落——灾害体”共生现象极为普遍，广大地震灾害威胁区山区聚落成为扶贫攻坚和实现乡村振兴的重点区域，有必要系统揭示农户在面临地震灾害威胁时的避灾准备行为特征及其驱动机制。研究聚焦地震灾害高风险区聚落，在已有研究基础上，提出理论假设——农户避灾准备行为决策在不同尺度上存在显著差异，直接或间接受个人认知、家庭能力及聚落其它农户“同群效应”影响。充分考虑区域地震灾害裂度分区、受灾损失程度及经济发展水平，在分层等概率随机抽样原则下，采用深度访谈和调查问卷方式获得“个体-农户-聚落”嵌套式数据，构建个体认知-农户能力-避灾准备行为选择分析框架，并耦合聚落农户避灾行为选择间的“同群效应”，构建分层线性/非线性计量经济模型揭示个体认知、农户能力及聚落尺度“同群效应”对农户避灾准备行为决策的异质性及贡献率，最终有针对性的提出地震灾害威胁区聚落韧性防灾体系建设及经济可持续发展建议。

以四川为代表的地震灾害大省“聚落-灾害体”共生现象极为普遍，广大地震灾害威胁区山区聚落成为扶贫攻坚和实现乡村振兴的重点区域，有必要系统揭示农户在面临地震灾害威胁时的避灾准备行为特征及其驱动机制。研究聚焦地震灾害高风险区聚落，在已有研究基础上，提出理论假设——农户避灾准备行为决策在不同尺度上存在显著差异，直接或间接受个人认知、家庭能力及聚落其它农户“同群效应”影响。充分考虑区域地震灾害裂度分区、受灾损失程度及经济发展水平，在分层等概率随机抽样原则下，采用深度访谈和调查问卷方式获得“个体-农户-聚落”嵌套式数据，构建个体认知-农户能力-避灾准备行为选择分析框架，并耦合聚落农户避灾行为选择间的“同群效应”，构建计量经济模型揭示个体认知、农户能力及聚落尺度“同群效应”对农户避灾准备行为决策的异质性及贡献率。结果发现：专业人士和普通民众在应急避灾物品和知识培训准备上存在显著差异，普通民众会通过模仿专业人士的避灾准备行为来达到避灾准备的趋同性，普通民众会通过社会学习提升应急避灾物品和灾害保险准备水平，普通民众房屋加固准备只与其遭受的直接经济损失大小有关，与其社会学习行为无关。社会关系推动和政府推动情境下，农户灾害风险沟通、风险认知对其避灾搬迁决策的作用链条存在区别。在社会关系推动避灾搬迁决策的情境下，农户分别以风险沟通→风险认知→避灾搬迁决策和风险沟通→避灾搬迁决策，两条作用路径对其避灾搬迁决策进行驱动。研究结果有助于管理者理解灾区农户面对灾害风险时的不同行为响应的因果链条差异，区分有效、无效、低效、高效作用因素，进而有根据地从社会、经济、心理、自然、风险沟通、风险认知等角度采取相应的有效策略，最终有助于提高山区社会与灾害风险共存的弹性与韧性，促进灾害风险背景下可持续的山区聚落人地关系的构建。研究形成的相关政策建议已经被应用到韧性防灾体系建设、灾害风险管理等实际工作中去。