农户经济利益诉求与环境友好型生产行为的矛盾：基于现时偏好与长期偏好视角的再审视

Agricultural non-point source pollution threatens the sustainable development of Chinese agriculture, and farmers’ irrational agricultural production behavior is considered as the key factor. The development and integration of disciplines provides an opportunity to understand farmers' environmental friendly production behaviors and also poses new challenges about the promotion of farmers’ environmental friendly production behavior. There are major conflicts in different research perspectives based on a potential consensus that the essence of this contradiction is the farmers’ economic interests and environmental friendly production behaviors are primarily contradictory. This study takes farmers' present biased preference and long-term preference as the starting point, and examines the potential consensus. The influence mechanism of present biased preference and long-term preferences on farmers' environmental friendly production behavior are analyzed, and the experimental economics and econometric methods are used to analyze the mechanism. Furthermore, the restrictions of the transformation from farmers’ present biased preference to long-term preference are examined. Finally, the intervention path and promotion mechanism of farmers’ behavior are constructed based on the transformation from farmers’ present biased preference to long-term preference with the coordination of farmers' economic interests and environmental friendly production behavior. This study expects to clarify the reasons of conflicts among different viewpoints from a theoretical perspective, and to provide a feasible solution for improving agricultural non-point source pollution with coordination between farmers' economic interests and environmental friendly production behaviors.

农业面源污染威胁着我国农业可持续发展，其根源在于农户不合理的农业生产行为。学科大发展与大融合为深入理解农户环境友好型生产行为提供了契机，也为如何促进农户环境友好型生产行为提出新的挑战。不同研究观点存在较大冲突，但却均基于一个潜在共识——农户经济利益诉求与环境友好型生产行为矛盾，这也正是不同观点冲突的本质。本项目从农户经济利益诉求的现时偏好和长期偏好入手，对潜在共识再审视。在系统分析现时偏好、长期偏好对农户环境友好型生产行为影响机理的基础上，采用实验经济学和计量经济学方法进行验证；进而分析农户现时偏好向长期偏好转变的制约；最后，从农户现时偏好向长期偏好转变，经济利益诉求与环境友好型生产行为协调的逻辑，构建农户环境友好型生产行为干预路径与提升机制。研究结果可从理论层面理清不同观点冲突的原因，并为实现农户经济利益诉求与环境友好型生产行为协调，进而从根源上改善农业面源污染提供可行方案。

本项目在梳理农户环境友好型生产行为研究脉络的基础上，从经济学和社会心理学理论观点冲突的本质原因入手，提出“农户经济利益诉求与环境友好型生产行为不必然矛盾”的观点，在此基础上通过借鉴农户行为理论、规范行动理论和时间偏好理论构建了农户环境友好型生产行为理论分析框架，基于河南、山东、江苏、甘肃、浙江和陕西六省1384份蔬菜种植户微观调查数据，采用有序Logit模型、多元线性回归模型、似不相关回归模型、贝叶斯多元线性回归模型和分位数回归模型等分析了农户经济利益诉求的现时偏好和长期偏好对农户环境友好型生产行为的影响，比较了现时偏好型农户和长期偏好型农户的差异，分析了农户经济利益诉求现时偏好向长期偏好转变的关键因素。结果表明：农户经济利益诉求与环境友好型生产行为不必然矛盾，现时偏好阻碍了农户环境友好型生产行为，但长期偏好与农户环境友好型生产行为协调；个体特征、家庭特征和生产特征是农户经济利益诉求由现时偏好向长期偏好转变的关键，年龄较大、家庭年收入较多以及农业劳动力人数较多会明显促进农户经济利益诉求由现时偏好向长期偏好转变，但较高的风险规避程度、较多的家庭人口数、较大的种植面积以及较长的务农年限抑制了农户现时偏好向长期偏好的转变；党员和村干部身份对农户经济利益诉求长期偏好的形成进而缓解农业环境污染并未起到应有作用；对当期经济利益的诉求，仍是当前广大农户农业生产中的主要关注点，不利于农户环境友好型生产行为的形成。据此提出：应重新理顺农户经济利益诉求与环境友好型生产行为的关系，以农户时间偏好角度作为发力点，促进农户环境友好型生产行为；通过多渠道拓宽农户收入来源，扩大农村政策保险和商业保险覆盖面，提高农户风险承受力，加强新型农业经营主体建设，强化农村基层组织建设，充分发挥农村基层组织引领带动作用等多种途径，促进农户经济利益诉求由现时偏好向长期偏好转变，提高农户环境友好型生产行为，缓解农业环境污染。