基于行为偏好的合约与现货组合采购决策研究

With the rapid development of e-commerce, it becomes more popular for buyers to implement portfolio procurement with contract purchasing and spot purchasing. Due to potential risks arising from the uncertainties in portfolio procurement, it is a big challenge for the buyers to make procurement decision with different behavior preferences. This project introduces the behavioral decision to study buyers' portfolio procurement with long-term contract, option contract and spot market, and we will analyze the influences of buyers' behavior preferences on portfolio procurement decision. Under the three scenarios, that is, spot price fluctuation，spot supply uncertainty, and default of contract supplier, we study the optimal portfolio procurement problem in view of buyers' behavior preferences: (1) to investigate the alterable relationship between the optimal purchasing strategy and buyers' expected return, risk preference, loss aversion and other behavior preferences; (2) to reveal the influences of spot price fluctuation，spot supply uncertainty and default of contract supplier on the optimal purchasing decision; (3) to study how the market factors, such as spot trading liquidity, influence the optimal procurement strategy; (4) to revise the theoretical results by enterprise research and data analysis. The objective of this project is to reveal the influences of buyers' different behavior preferences on portfolio procurement, and to reduce the decision bias caused by the expected utility theory. Moreover, the research in this project can provide managerial insights for a buyer to develop optimal purchasing strategy according to his/her own behavior preference.

随着电子商务的快速发展，采购商通过合约与现货进行组合采购的方式愈加普遍，由于组合采购中诸多不确定因素带来的风险，对具有不同行为偏好采购商的组合采购决策提出挑战。本项目结合行为决策理论对采购商的组合采购问题进行研究，分析采购商的行为偏好对采购决策产生的影响。针对现货价格波动、现货供应不确定和合约供应商违约三种情形，研究基于采购商行为偏好的组合采购问题：(1)探讨采购商的预期收益期望、风险偏好和损失厌恶等行为因素与采购策略之间的变动关系；(2)分析现货价格波动、现货供应和合约供应商违约等不确定因素对采购决策产生的影响；(3)考查现货市场买入流动性等市场决策因素的变动对采购策略带来的变化；(4)结合企业调研及数据分析对理论结果进行修正。通过本项目的研究，可以明确采购商行为偏好对组合采购决策的影响，减少期望效用准则带来的决策偏差，为采购商结合自身行为偏好制定组合采购策略提供管理见解。

合约与现货组合采购在现实生活中越来越普遍，关于该问题的相关研究也得到了广泛关注。本项目针对具有不同行为偏好采购商的最优组合采购决策进行了深入探讨，获得了系列重要成果：通过构建模型给出了风险厌恶采购商和损失厌恶采购商在若干情形下的最优组合采购策略，明确了风险厌恶和损失厌恶行为偏好对采购商最优组合采购决策产生的影响。研究结果表明采购商的风险厌恶和损失厌恶对其采购策略带来重要变化，随着其风险厌恶程度和损失厌恶程度的变化，其最优组合采购策略也应当做出相应改变。最后，结合研究结果对现实生活中采购商的最优组合采购决策提出相应的管理见解。相关结果发表在《International Journal of Production Research》、《Annals of Operations Research》、《Industrial Management & Data Systems》、《Mathematics and Computers in Simulation》、《Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research》、《Mathematics》和《运筹与管理》等国内外知名学术期刊，其中SCI收录9篇，ESI热点论文和高被引论文2篇。在科学出版社出版学术专著《行为视角下的库存管理》一部，获得山东省高等学校优秀科研成果一等奖和二等奖各一项，项目主持人入选山东省泰山学者人才工程，所带领团队获批山东省首批高等学校优秀青年创新团队。