风险社会下农户风险意识与偏好对其土地流转决策行为影响研究

As an institutional innovation following household-responsibility system, the transfer of land contract management rights becomes a system tool which allocates efficiently land resources and achieves agricultural modernization. However, at present, rural land circulation has fallen into the dilemma that the proportion of cultivated land for transfer to contract management farmland is fairly low. The causes of dilemma are not elucidated by research results based on property theory, institution change theory and contract theory, which results in inefficiency to resolve it. The project puts forward the hypothesis that the reason for nonparticipation and unwillingness of farmers to land transfer is farmer's attitudes towards risk-aversion based on previous investigation about farmer's awareness of risk. The theoretical framework is established to explain the fundamental reasons that farmland circulation is in a predicament, which consists of (1) assessing the awareness and attitudes towards risk of farmers based on Likert scales and safety-first model, and (2) exploring the key factors which influence the awareness and attitudes towards risk of farmers on the basis of risk sharing model, and (3) revealing the quantitative relationship between farmers' decision-making and willingness to transfer farmland and farmers' awareness and attitudes towards risk of and farmers' characteristics of internal and external environment. Finally, the purpose of the research project is to establish public policy system of risk management for farmland circulation adapting to China's national situation in order to promote farmland transfer.

土地流转是家庭承包责任制的后续创新，也是实现资源有效配置和农业现代化的中轴制度工具，但现阶段中国农村土地流转却陷入了"低水平困局"。现有以产权、制度及契约为核心的理论分析不能完全阐明困局形成机制，由此引申的政策创新效果并不显著。本研究以"风险"作为切入点，基于对农户风险意识的前期考察，提出了"在当前中国农村缺乏正规避险机制条件下，多数农户的风险规避态度决定了其不参与或不愿意参与土地流转"的研究假说。通过建立土地流转风险分析框架，在农户调查基础上，运用利克特量表、"安全第一"模型对农户风险意识和偏好进行评价，借助风险分担模型探寻影响农户风险意识和偏好的关键因素，进而构建出农户土地流转风险决策模型以揭示农户土地流转意愿或行为与农户风险意识和偏好及农户内外部环境间的定量关系，试图解释土地流转困局形成的根本原因，为建立符合现阶段国情的土地流转风险治理公共政策体系及改善农户内外部环境提供科学依据。

目前，被喻为“中国农村第二次革命”的战略举措并没有带来如理论界所预期的土地流转高潮，似乎陷入了“低水平困局”。本项目从宏观和微观两个层面探究了广东省土地流转进程滞后的根本原因，结果发现：①耕地资源禀赋、人力资源禀赋和社会经济资源禀赋是影响土地流转进程的重要因子。其中，耕地规模及人均耕地规模与土地流转率呈极显著的负向关系；农村人口规模是抑制土地流转进程的重要因素，而适龄农村劳动力规模、受高中教育程度人口比重则促进了土地流转进程；地区GDP、非农产值比重、人均GDP、农村居民人均纯收入以及农村收入结构中工业收入比重均对土地流转进程有显著的促进作用。②农户的风险偏好存在异质性，广东省被访农户中风险厌恶型、风险中性及风险偏好型农户所占比重并无明显差异，分别为35%、28%和37%，但风险量表法和多重价格列表法测算结果有所差异。③不同地区农户对土地流转的潜在风险识别存在差异，粤北山区农户较为担心土地流转后的环境恶化风险，而珠三角地区农户更为担心土地流转租金兑现。④农户关于农村社会保障认知水平显著影响其土地流转意愿，而农户金融服务认知水平和对生活的感知对其土地流转意愿均无显著影响。⑤农户的风险意识和偏好对其土地流转意愿有显著的抑制作用，而正式的土地流转合同的签订可以激励农户参与土地流转。⑥农户的风险意识和偏好受性别、年龄、文化程度、家庭年收入、家庭收入结构的显著影响，而与其职业无关。⑦在流转土地用途可非农变更假定情境下，农户土地流转参与意愿却显著下降，这说明经济利益最大化并非农户在土地流转过程中行为选择的唯一准绳，其中农户的风险意识、年龄起到了关键的抑制作用。