城镇化进程中新疆城乡收入差异及其增长、收敛时空计量研究：族群时空分布新视角

Over the past 10 years, the rapid economic growth and level of urbanization greatly improved in Xinjiang, but the rural-urban income disparity Increasing in the process of urbanization. That affect the national strategy of developing the Western region, the sustainable development of Xinjiang and constructing harmonious society in national.Spatial Panel model for the item with the most recent Dubin-space model as well as the spatial econometric model analysis method (such as spatial quantile of law, robustness analysis of law), geographic information systems (GIS) and a variety of operations research optimization methods for research, the crossover studies will go on for the project with the most recent Dubin-space model as well as the spatial econometric model analysis method(such as spatial quantile of law, robustness analysis of law), geographic information systems (GIS) and a variety of operations research optimization methods . Expect visually with GIS method study on the mechanisms 0f forming unusual positive correlation between urbanization and income difference of urban-rural in Xinjiang as well as the reasons for this are high; Discussion on spatial factors influencing the urban-rural income differences in Xinjiang; Discussion on the space dependence between the ethnic spatial distribution pattern and the wideness income gap of urban and rural areas in the process of urbanization in Xinjiang; Discussion on if ethnic spatial distribution patterns reflect a gap between the minority and the mainstream economic and social, If there are, how to measure and eliminate them; Discussion on if ethnic spatial distribution patterns barrier technology diffusion and spillovers. Finally, for given data, and spatial econometric models achieved, feasible solutions is given with the operations research optimization method to the above discussed problems.

近10年来，新疆经济快速增长、城镇化水平获得极大提高，但城镇化过程现的城乡收入差异却在扩大，这影响到西部大开发战略、国家一路一带战略、新疆的稳定与发展以及多民族和谐社会建设。本项目将用时空计量模型-动态空间面板计量模型以及空间计量模型分析方法（如空间分位数法、稳健性分析法等）、地理信息系统(GIS)方法以及运筹学的多种优化方法进行多视角研究，希望用GIS方法可视化地探讨新疆城镇化进程与城乡收入差异之间形成反常正相关以及这种正相关较高的原因；探讨影响新疆城乡收入差异的时空因素；探讨新疆族群时空分布模式和城乡收入差距变化之间存在的时空依赖性；探讨新疆族群时空分布模式是否反映了少数民族与主流经济社会之间的隔阂，若存在，如何度量与消除；探讨新疆族群时空分布模式是否以及如何阻隔了技术扩散和溢出效应。最后，用收敛时空计量模型，探讨新疆城乡收入差异增长及其收敛特性，并用运筹学优化方法给出最优收敛路径。

近10年来，新疆经济快速增长、城镇化水平获得极大提高，但城镇化过程中地区收入差异、城乡收入差异以及族群收入差异却在扩大。本项目将用空间模型和空间分位数法以及运筹学的多种优化方法进行交叉研究，并用地理信息系统可视化地探讨新疆城镇化进程中地区收入差异、城乡收入差异以及族群收入差异的成因、趋势和收敛特性；探讨影响新疆地区收入差异、城乡收入差异以及族群收入差异的空间因素；探讨新疆族群空间分布模式与城镇化过程中地区收入差异、城乡收入差异以及族群收入差异扩大之间的空间关系；探讨新疆族群空间分布模式是否反映了少数民族经济社会与主流经济社会的差异，若存在，如何度量与消除；探讨新疆族群空间分布模式是否阻隔了技术扩散和溢出效应。结果如下（a）如果人均收入随着时间的推移增长，区域经济发展政策很可能会缩小区域内的收入不平等（增长机制政策）；（b）同时，原则上，不需要任何政策干预来减少跨区域的收入不平等的不一致，因为收入不平等是无条件收敛的；加强跨区域的人均收入的政策干预可能会很有用，因为人均收入在控制了教育程度、失业和产业结构、人均收入的空间滞后增长和区域固定效应后是条件收敛的（收敛机制政策）。