价格、库存和时间视角下考虑策略性消费者的动态定价策略研究

In most scientific publications on dynamic pricing, the modeling of customer behaviour traditionally only plays a minor role. Customers are mostly assumed to act in a myopic way. As a result, future price trends have no influence on purchasing decisions; a seller can therefore set his prices without having to fear any potential disadvantages, in recent years, researchers have begun to realize that the assumption of such uninformed, myopic customers may be somewhat out of date. Customers are increasingly thinking strategically and include future price trends as part of their calculations. Thus, a major concern from the seller’s perspective is to discourage this strategic waiting. The consideration of strategic customer behaviour is specifically important because customers today are also very much supported in their decision-making by modern Internet technologies and software. At first,the applicant analyze the relation between myopic customers and swtrategic ones,then we put forward the dynaimic pricing research frame of retailers based on price、inventory and time's Perspective.Continuously we anlyze the different behaviour when the customer buy the product or service on the website, especially those products or service which can be used revenue management theory. Secondly we will involved the latest theory in the behaviour economic to set up corresponding model in the online retailer field and extent the research branch on the consumer choice direction. In this part the applicant would do research from the following three aspects:(1)As the website such as qunar.com and ctrip.com appears,the customers can conveniently collect much price information, so the consumer purchase behavior will be influenced by the historical price. And we first construct a dynamic pricing to reflect the phenomenon. At the same time , as fixed reference point, people have the different psychological feeling for the same gain and loss and we use prospect theory to set up new model.(2)In terms of dynamic, firms constantly adjust prices through out the time and online consumer’s price sensitivity also change over the time. The purpose of this project is based on a stochastic perspective to build up an interactive model between supply and demand to analyze how consumers time preference heterogeneity to influence online retailer’s dynamic pricing strategy.(3)In the context of this project, strategic consumers anticipate purchasing opportunities while taking into account the online firm's pricing strategy and the actions of their fellow consumers. To analyze the effect that such strategic behavior has on the comparison between pricing schemes, we build analytical models in which one or two firms strategically interact with a population of strategic consumers (who choose whether and/or when to purchase) to form a "game". At the end, we will collect typical retailers’(such as 360buy.com and ctrip.com)data to correct our models, and guide their daily operations.

在大多数动态定价的研究中，顾客行为往往扮演一个次要角色。然而，近年来研究人员开始意识到把顾客视为短视性消费的假设可能有点过时了，越来越多的顾客具备战略思维，将商品未来的价格趋势作为其决策的一部分。因此，在零售商的动态定价决策中最关心的问题就是阻止消费者等待策略的发生。本课题结合收益管理理论，将零售商在面对日益复杂的策略性消费者的动态定价研究分解为价格、时间和风险三个视角，以策略性消费者和短视型的决策行为差异为出发点，对其如何采用合适的动态定价策略展开研究。具体的考虑价格承诺、库存多寡以及提前销售和消费者的参考效应、损失规避效应以及时间偏好不一致的特性以及策略性的等待行为对需求的作用机理和规律，建立考虑消费者效用最大化的同时零售商收入最大化的动态定价策略优化模型，分析模型的性质，并给出有效的解决算法。最后以企业实际运行数据，检验模型的可行性并纠偏，使理论更加科学的指导企业的微观运作。

在大多数动态定价的研究中，顾客行为往往扮演一个次要角色。然而，近年来研究人员开始意识到把顾客视为短视性消费的假设可能有点过时了，越来越多的顾客具备战略思维，将商品未来的价格趋势作为其决策的一部分。因此，在零售商的动态定价决策中最关心的问题就是阻止消费者等待策略的发生。本课题结合收益管理理论，将零售商在面对日益复杂的策略性消费者的动态定价研究分解为价格、时间和风险三个视角，以策略性消费者和短视型的决策行为差异为出发点，对其如何采用合适的动态定价策略展开研究。具体的考虑价格承诺、库存多寡以及提前销售和消费者的参考效应、损失规避效应以及时间偏好不一致的特性以及策略性的等待行为对需求的作用机理和规律，建立考虑消费者效用最大化的同时零售商收入最大化的动态定价策略优化模型，分析模型的性质，并给出有效的解决算法。最后以企业实际运行数据，检验模型的可行性并纠偏，使理论更加科学的指导企业的微观运作。