邮轮港口的腹地划分、竞争力评价与空间协同研究：理论模型与中国实证

In recent years, we have witnessed the rapid development in the cruise industry. The industry has become one of the fastest growing and most dynamic segments of the entire travel and tourism sector. However, more and more researchers have noticed that this industry has received very limited research attention. As one of the biggest and hottest cruise destinations in the Asia Pacific region, China reported considerable progress and will become a new growth point of this industry.The Chinese cruise industry is experiencing the stage of port receptions and tourism services. More and more coastal cities in this country begain to pay attention to development of cruise economy, and focuse on establishments of cruise homeports. There is no doubt that competition among Chinese port cities will be increasingly fierce.. In the academic community, many studies of cruise port competitiveness have been done by Chinese researchers. The purpose of this project is to discuss the evaluation of competitiveness and the strategy of spatial coordination for Chinese cruise ports. The current project is mainly organized by 4 following aspects.. Firstly, influencing factors, related to port attribute and hinterland attribute, of Chinese cruise ports' competitiveness,will be explored by methods of Delphi session, questionnaire survey and factor analysis, in order to establish the system of evaluation criteria. Addtionally, influences of port factors and hinterland factors on port selections will be discussed. . Secondly, theoretical model and empirical study will be conducted to determine the boundary of cruise port hinterland with the purpose of partitioning regions of cruise port's competitiveness, and furthemore restricting the area of data collections for following competitiveness evaluation work. . Thirdly, comprehensive evaluation model will be built to assess the competitiveness of Chinese cruise ports and identify that which ports have the potential to be homeports, which ports are suitable for ports of call, and which should be simple jetties for cruise ships to berth and visit. . Finally, based on the results derived from previous studies, one nonlinear integer programming model for spatial coordination of cruise ports will be established according to network theory, with the goal of maximizing itinerary attractiveness, to determine optimally the ports to visit, visit duration of each port and visit sequence.. Gernerally speaking, the framework of this project is systematic and vivid. Through this research, the shortcoming of ignoring empirical support while building evaluation criteria, ignoring theoretical study for data collections and ignoring regional cooperation in existing literature will be expected to overcome. Anyhow, the project has significant contributions to development of the cruise industry in China during the current period.

作为现代服务业中旅游业和接待业完美结合的邮轮产业，具有多行业融合和高产业聚集性的特征，经济效益十分显著。我国邮轮产业正处在以港口接待为主的初级阶段。沿海港口之间的竞争日趋呈现非理性和无序化状态。本项目基于"港口-腹地联动"的视角，对邮轮港口的竞争力、区域化和空间协同问题进行系统研究。首先，利用多种实证分析手段，从港口属性和腹地属性对邮轮港口竞争力的影响因素进行识别，进而构建竞争力指标体系；其次，建立多因素腹地边界划分模型，对港口竞争力的辐射范围和数据采集区域进行界定；然后，构造多层赋权的多指标综合评价模型，对邮轮港口竞争力进行评价，进而结合判别分析法识别出邮轮母港、挂靠港和简易港口；最后，从航线开发的角度构建基于"图论"的非线性整数规划模型，对邮轮港口的空间协同和区域合作问题进行研究。项目成果将进一步丰富和发展邮轮港口竞争力理论，对我国现阶段发展邮轮产业具有重要的理论和现实意义。

近年来，国际邮轮业开始向亚太地区“东移”，中国已经成为国际邮轮公司竞相争夺的战略性新兴市场。从国际邮轮产业的实践经验来看，完备的港口设施、优良的港口服务、有效的港口协同、密集的航线布局和优质的岸上产品是邮轮港口竞争力的重要体现，也是邮轮产业持续健康发展的重要保障。本课题以邮轮港口的腹地开发、竞争力提升、空间协同与港口区域化为目标，重点对以下五个大的方面进行了系统研究：（1）邮轮产业的发展现状与研究现状研究；（2）邮轮港口硬件条件、功能配备与岸上产品配备研究；（3）邮轮港口协同、航线开发与拓展研究；（4）邮轮港口竞争力评价方法研究；（5）邮轮企业运营管理与收益优化研究。其中,课题研究的最核心问题是：邮轮港口竞争力的提升和邮轮港口的区域化问题。此外，国际邮轮产业在港口服务功能配备、港口岸上产品配置以及航线布局优化等实践经验也是本课题的重要研究内容。在课题的具体执行过程中，项目团队将以上五大方面分解为14个细化研究内容：（1）中国邮轮产业发展现状与邮轮港口系统的布局特征研究；（2）中国邮轮产业的研究现状与展望；（3）中国邮轮产业的未来发展趋势分析；（4）国际邮轮产业的季节性特征与母港航线重配策略研究；（5）邮轮港口的全球布局与发展条件研究；（6）邮轮港口的功能配备研究；（7）邮轮港口岸上产品配备特征及区域差异研究；（8）邮轮港口的接待能力（竞争力）研究：基于中日韩30个邮轮港口的对比分析；（9）邮轮港口在线服务能力研究：中日韩邮轮港口的比较研究；（10）邮轮港口的空间协同：航线规划的影响因素与资源配置研究；（11）多主体情形下邮轮港口竞争力评价方法研究；（12）基于多指标的综合评价与聚类方法与应用研究；（13）邮轮公司收益优化：邮轮舱位动态定价策略研究；（14）邮轮公司收益优化：邮轮舱位分配策略研究。课题组对14个细分问题进行了深入研究，并取得了一系列研究成果。希望研究结果能为我国邮轮产业发展，特别是邮轮港口建设规划、邮轮港口竞争力和抗风险能力提升、邮轮港口协作以及航线优化提供一定的指导作用。