供应中断风险下的后备产能订购决策模型研究

Due to the time-space constraints, emergency material stockpile has begun to be supplemented or even replaced by capacity reservation to deal with supply disruptions. To solve the problem of 'where', 'how much' and 'how' to reserve the backup capacity, and for the decisions to be more scientific, practical and coordinated, this program focuses on the co-opetition and game behaviour among the supply chain players. By integrating the theories of risk management, mechanism design theory and optimization methods, this program undertakes the following work: first, based on the loss measurement of supply disruptions, the backup supplier selection model is built; second, the game theory models between one manufacturer and one backup supplier are proposed, by considerations of insufficient capacity or unreliable supply; and then, the game theory models among one manufacturer and multiple backup suppliers are built, by considerations of the price competition or transshipment among the backup suppliers; finally, the corresponding application study of the models and algorithms are conducted. This research could shed lights on the risk mitigation stategy in purchasing management, and provide guidelines for the business and social activities of backup sourcing and operations management under risks.

由于产品的时效性和存储空间的限制，后备产能订购策略已开始补充甚至替代应急物资储备成为许多企业应对供应中断风险的有效措施之一。本项目针对后备产能"在哪订"、"订多少"和"如何订"的关键问题与难题，以提高后备产能订购决策的科学性、实用性和协调性为目标，以供应链成员的竞争合作和博弈关系研究为突破口，融合风险管理理论、机制设计理论与优化方法等学科理论,在供应中断损失测度的基础上，构建后备供应商选择决策模型；针对产能不足及后备供应商不可靠性问题，构建单制造商-单后备供应商的产能订购博弈决策模型；针对后备供应商价格竞争与横向转载策略，构建单制造商-多后备供应商的产能订购博弈决策模型；以及针对研究获得的模型和算法展开相关的应用研究。本项目为复杂采购管理环境中的中断风险应对策略研究提供一种新思路，对涉及后备采购和风险运作管理的商业及社会活动具有指导及借鉴意义。

本项目以供应中断风险下的后备产能订购决策问题为研究对象，主要开展了三个方面的理论研究：（1）构建了供应中断损失测度与后备供应商选择模型。分别从单周期和长期决策的角度，采用随机过程和概率分析法量化了供应中断对制造商期望效用的影响，并分析后备产能订购策略的优势特点，给出选择不同后备供应商的适用条件；（2）建立了单一制造商、单一后备供应商的产能订购决策模型。分别探讨了后备产能柔性、中断风险不确定性以及主要供应商可靠性提升性下的后备产能订购决策问题，研究制造商与后备供应商在不同类型决策下的博弈关系，同时分析了供应风险信息共享的价值和实现条件，提出供应风险下有选择性的信息共享策略；（3）建立了单一制造商、多后备供应商的产能订购决策模型。分析了第三方供应对后备产能订购策略下的均衡定价和产能订购决策的影响，以及价格异质情形下考虑客户服务水平的多后备供应商最优产能订购与订单分配决策，探讨了不同供应链结构下后备产能订购策略的价值。同时将研究对象拓展至零部件产能不确定风险下的装配系统的订购-定价联合优化决策，以及能力约束下的库存最优策略研究中。本项目研究成果对供应中断风险管理理论与方法的发展有重要的推动作用，对企业提高抗风险能力、降低采购成本和实现资源优化配置有重要意义。