基于后备供货应对不对称供应风险的最优订购策略研究

With the rapid progress of economic globalization tide and widespread use business outsourcing, manufacturing supply chain is increasingly depending on the operation of the supply side. It has become the primary factor for the enterprises in making the purchasing decisions. This project takes the supply chain management with the asymmetric supply information as research subject, and investigates how the backup sourcing strategy affects the ordering decision of the buyer when facing with the supply risk from the main supply side. Meanwhile, it also studies the value of backup sourcing strategy for the supply chain management. .. This project focuses on the following three aspects. First, based on the conventional study on the symmetric case, we develop the exploration on the supply chain management with asymmetric information of supply risk. Second, our study is shifting from single sourcing strategy to multifaceted leadtime-associated backup sourcing strategy. Finally, our work switches from single-period backup sourcing strategy to multi-period and multifaceted cases. This project, using the non-cooperative game theory as a main tool, will carry on the research of production modes, ordering strategies, incentive mechanisms of information disclosure and so on. It will develop some game models by using the multi-disciplinary theory and method, such as management science, information economics, principal-agent theory, computer simulation technology and systematic theory and so on. Simultaneously, it will study the influences of the asymmetric supply information on the decisions of each player and the whole channel. This project puts forward theoretically how to improve the abilities of the supply chain dealing with supply risk. The study is of a significant practical value to enhance the competitive power of enterprise or the whole supply chain, and there will also be important reference value for supplier management in our large aircraft project.

经济全球化的加快和业务外包的广泛应用，使得制造业供应链日益依赖于供应端的运作，并导致供应风险成为企业采购决策所需考虑的首要因素。本项目以不对称供货信息下的供应链为背景，研究在面临主供应商端的供应风险时，后备供应策略对采购商订购策略的影响和对供应链管理的价值。. 研究内容主要包括：从传统的对称供货风险信息转向不对称情形；从单一供货渠道转向多层面伴随补货提前期的供货渠道情形；进一步，从单周期的后备供货策略转向多周期、多层面情形。本项目以非合作博弈为主要工具，结合管理学、信息经济学、委托代理理论及仿真技术建立博弈模型，对系统的生产模式、后备供应策略、订购分配、信息甄别机制等问题进行研究，分析不对称供货信息对供应链成员和渠道决策的影响及信息价值。本项目从理论上提出如何改善供应链应对供货风险的能力，对提高我国企业或供应链的竞争能力具有重要的实践意义，对我国大飞机供应商管理具有重要参考价值。

经济全球化的加快和业务外包的广泛应用，使得制造业供应链日益依赖于供应端的运作，并导致供应风险成为企业采购决策所需考虑的首要因素。针对不对称供货信息下的供应链管理以及供应端的供应风险情况下，本项目以非合作博弈为主要工具，结合管理学、信息经济学、委托代理理论及仿真技术建立博弈模型，对系统的生产模式、后备供应策略、订购分配、信息甄别机制等问题进行研究，分析不对称供货信息对供应链成员和渠道决策的影响及信息价值。. 本项目主要研究工作如下：. （1）针对市场随机需求、产量分配不确定以及供货中断情况的供应链系统，研究了基于后备供货策略下的渠道力对供应链绩效和决策的影响。（2）针对零售商为主导下的二级供应链系统，在考虑随机需求和随机产出情况下，研究了零售商订单不能满足情况下的后备应急补货策略。（3）基于Cournot竞争博弈模型，研究了在不对称需求信息情况下系统的最优决策，并建立契约菜单来识别零售商的扰动需求类型的规划模型。（4）针对由一个供应商和多个竞争零售商组成的供应链系统，建立了Bertrand价格竞争博弈和合作博弈模型,并探索了这两种博模型对于均衡决策的影响。（5）针对农产品采供的二层供应链系统，建立了在考虑产品的伴随的损失状态下的不同期权协同契约模型。（6）针对由酒店和在线旅行社组成的二级旅游供应链系统，建立了基于线上和线下销售的最优决策模型。. 本项目的研究获得了后备供应决策对于采购商和常规供应商最优决策的影响，以及对渠道绩效的影响，从而制定最优的订货决策。这种研究将使得对于后备供应商选择、评价、管理产生比较现实的科学意义。本项目的研究进一步丰富了供应链管理的现有理论，并提出了如何改善供应链应对供货风险的能力，对提高我国企业和供应链的竞争能力具有重要的实践意义，对供应商管理具有重要参考价值。