城市居住区家庭能源消费CO2排放空间分异机制与减排模式：以郑汴都市区为例

The study on urban household fossil fuel CO2 emissions in residential areas has become an essential part for low-carbon city and low-carbon community construction. However, there have been great controversies on the spatial distribution pattern and its driving forces of urban household fossil fuel CO2 emissions. In order to select effective reduction models for various residential areas, it is necessary to clearly account urban household fossil fuel CO2 and figure out the determining factor influencing CO2 emissions at spatial fine scales. Hence, we will build a comprehensive method to account urban household fossil fuel CO2 emissions in residential areas. Meanwhile, we will also use a combination of means such as spatial autocorrelation method, kernel density estimation, quantile regression analysis, graphically weighted regression (GWR) model, structural equation model (SEM) and the LEAP simulation platform, to simulate the evolution of urban household fossil fuel CO2 emissions. As a metropolis with tremendous changes of urban spatial structure, residential lifestyle in the past 20 year, Zhengzhou-Kaifeng metropolitan area will be used to explicitly exhibit the characteristics of household CO2 emissions in residential areas and explain the spatial distribution pattern and its driving forces. We will estimate the household CO2 emissions in 1020 residential areas, describe various types of spatial pattern, explain the driving mechanisms, analysis the carbon-reduction potential and propose an appropriate policy and mode of low-carbon development for various residential areas on local conditions. We will highlight the accounting method of urban household fossil fuel CO2 emissions in the building/street scale to give accurate descriptions of spatial pattern of urban household fossil fuel CO2 emissions, and focus the analytical framework of situated lifestyle to comprehensively illustrate the spatial differentiation mechanisms driven by urban form, residential lifestyle and family characters. Overall, the research will advance the study on low-carbon urban spatial structure, and give great insight to formulate carbon reduction policy for the planning, the construction and the governance of low-carbon city and low-carbon community.

城市居住区家庭能源消费CO2排放研究是低碳城市与社区建设关注的重点内容之一。针对已有研究在家庭CO2排放核算方面的薄弱环节，以及家庭CO2排放影响因素方面存在的争议，本项目以郑汴都市区为案例区，构建城市居住区家庭能源消费CO2排放核算体系，综合运用空间分析与分位数回归方法、GWR与SEM模型、LEAP模拟平台，评估近1020个居住区的家庭能源消费CO2排放水平，揭示其空间分布规律，阐释其空间分异的驱动机制，选择典型居住小区分析其减排潜力与模式，进而为不同类型居住区提出因地制宜的低碳发展政策与模式。项目重点建立城市建筑/街道尺度家庭能源消费CO2排放核算方法，构建情景化生活方式分析框架，以期精确描绘郑汴都市区家庭CO2排放空间格局，全面阐释城市空间形态、居民生活方式、家庭基本特征等对其空间分异的驱动机制，该研究不仅能丰富低碳空间结构理论研究，而且为低碳城市与社区规划、建设、管治提供依据。

城市居住区家庭能源消费碳排放研究是低碳城市与社区建设关注的重点内容之一。针对已有研究在家庭碳排放核算方面的薄弱环节，以及家庭碳排放影响因素方面存在的争议，本项目以郑汴都市区为案例区，构建城市居住区家庭能源消费碳排放核算体系，综合运用空间分析与统计分析方法，评估郑汴都市区近4000个居住区的家庭能源消费碳排放水平，揭示其空间分布规律，阐释其空间分异的驱动机制，选择典型居住小区分析其减排潜力与模式，进而为不同类型居住区提出因地制宜的低碳发展政策与模式。研究发现：（1）中小城市（开封）家庭碳排放存在圈层结构，家庭碳排放总量及家庭用能、出行、隐含碳排放在城市外圈层（新建开发区和城市扩张区）排放量较高，而在城市中心城建造年代久、开发力度小的老商品房小区、胡同小区排放量较低。（2）大城市（郑州）家庭碳排放存在多中心结构，高碳排放中心散布在城市各个圈层，不同类型碳排放之间存在补偿效应和反弹效应。（3）中小城市（开封）家庭碳排放的空间分异主要是空间形态锁定下收入水平与生活方式共同作用的结果，大城市（郑州）家庭碳排放在距离效应、补偿效应与反弹效应下产生空间分异。（4）中小城市（开封）的居住区可划分为外层高密度单调功能型、过渡带路网密集一般功能型、内层低密度较高混合利用型、中心低密度混合利用型、外层封闭单调功能型五种类型。其中外层封闭单调功能型居住区和外层高密度单调功能型居住区的各类碳排放均值皆较高，是碳减排分区空间治理的关键。项目最大的贡献为构建了涵盖距离效应、补偿效应、反弹效应的情景化生活方式分析框架，建立了精细尺度的郑汴都市区居民能源消费碳排放数据库，精确描绘了郑汴都市区家庭碳排放空间格局，全面阐释了城市空间形态、居民生活方式、家庭基本特征等对其空间分异的驱动机制，该研究不仅能丰富低碳空间结构理论研究，而且为低碳城市与社区规划、建设、管治提供依据。