碳市场价格多维扰动下新能源发电项目投资决策研究

The investment of renewable energy generation project is facing new opportunities and challenges under the carbon emission trading system. The fluctuation of carbon price has multi-dimensional disturbing effect on the investment decision in renewable energy power generation projects. In other words, it may affect the investment timing, scale and structure of renewable energy power project by inputting the cost income structure, investment risk and investment characteristics. It affects whether the investor's decision is fit for the correct orientation and development track of the country and the industry. And it also affects the integral coordination and effectiveness of relevant policies. Thus the key to gain a steady and fast development is to explicit the disturbing effect of carbon price and to guide the investing decisions. This project will present a dynamic description of variation process of carbon price and the media factor of multi-dimensional disturbing effect and a depth analysis of the choice of investment time and the selection of scale structure for renewable energy power generation project under the multi-dimensional disturbing effect of carbon price by using multi-value evaluation based on real options, portfolio optimization and stochastic optimization. And we will also evaluate the integral coordination and effectiveness of relevant policies. In this way, the mechanism in multi-dimensional disturbance effect of the carbon price is theoretically presented. This study could not only offer basis for scientific decision-making for renewable energy power generation project and but also provide the Chinese government with references to the scientific measurement of the impacts of the variation of carbon price, the formulation of cooperative and effective policy as well as the correct guidance of renewable energy investment.

碳排放交易体系下新能源发电项目投资面临全新的机遇与挑战。碳市场价格变动对新能源发电投资决策产生多维扰动作用，即通过导入成本收益、投资风险和投资特性等因素，干扰投资者对项目投资时机、规模和结构等多维决策指标的选择。这势必影响投资者决策能否切合于正确导向和发展轨道，影响相关政策的整体协同有效性。因此，明确碳市场价格的多维扰动机理，引导投资者决策是新能源发电项目投资获得平稳快速发展的关键。本项目将运用基于实物期权的多价值评估、投资组合优化、随机优化等方法，动态刻画和预测由多元复杂因素驱动的碳市场价格变动，深入分析碳市场价格多维扰动下新能源发电项目投资时机、规模和结构的选择，并探究相关政策的整体协同有效性。以期在理论上深度揭示碳市场价格对新能源发电项目投资决策的多维扰动作用机理，完善新能源项目决策理论体系，在实践上为科学测定碳市场价格变动的影响，提高政策的协同有效性，进而引导投资者决策提供借鉴。

碳排放交易体系下新能源发电项目投资面临全新的机遇与挑战。碳市场价格变动对新能源发电投资决策产生多维扰动作用，即通过导入成本收益、投资风险和投资特性等因素，干扰投资者对项目投资时机、规模和结构等多维决策指标的选择。这势必影响投资者决策能否切合于正确导向和发展轨道，影响相关政策的整体协同有效性。因此，明确碳市场价格的多维扰动机理，引导投资者决策是新能源发电项目投资获得平稳快速发展的关键。本项目运用基于实物期权的多价值评估、投资组合优化、随机优化等方法，动态刻画了由多元复杂因素驱动的碳市场价格变动，深入分析了碳市场价格多维扰动下新增新能源发电项目、现有传统电力企业面向新能源的转型投资以及考虑动态波动性的新能源发电项目投资时机选择，并且还分析了多种政策情境下的新能源发电投资结构选择策略，进而总结提炼了碳市场价格变动对可再生能源投资的系统影响，并深入分析了相关政策的整体协同有效性，进而分别提出了一套推动我国可再生能源发展的政策建议。研究结果表明：如果将新能源发电纳入到碳交易体系中，不管是对于新建的新能源发电项目还是对于现有电力企业向新能源的转型投资，碳交易的实施将较大的提高新能源发电项目的投资价值，提前项目的投资时间；在碳交易机制实施的条件下，某些新能源已完全可以推广实施平价上网；随着碳交易机制的实施，电力企业在选择投资结构时，会更多的考虑新能源发电；二氧化碳价格的波动性尽管会提高投资价值，但是会推迟项目的投资时间。因此，政府相关部分应该围绕推动碳交易市场的平稳运行、维持二氧化碳价格的稳定、以及在技术进步、体制机制的创新等方面采取一些新措施，进而推动新能源的发展。本项目研究在理论上深度揭示了碳市场价格对新能源发电项目投资决策的多维扰动作用机理，完善新能源项目决策理论体系，并拓展了相关理论和方法在新能源领域的应用，在实践上为科学测定碳市场价格变动的影响，提高政策的协同有效性，进而引导新能源发电项目投资者决策，推动新能源发电的稳步快速发展提供借鉴。