多重博弈视角下碳捕集、利用与封存(CCUS)项目投资决策建模与政策研究

As a technology that can realize the large-scale and low-carbon utilization of fossil energy, CCUS has a great potential for reducing emissions. The coal-based endowment characteristic in China determines the key role of CCUS technology in achieving its long-term and high-efficiency emission reduction. However, the high uncertainty of CCUS project implementation cost and return and the lack of corresponding incentive policies make its development slow in China. And there are also complex impacts brought by multiple game agents in the early stage of technology application. Therefore, to make it more practical in CCUS investment and relative policy development, this project will take the elements of game into the CCUS project value evaluation model: propose the basic analysis framework for CCUS project investment decision-making under multiple game perspectives, and clarify the influence mechanism of uncertainty in CCUS project investment decision-making according to practical needs; establish the integrated model of investment evaluation based on compound real options for CCUS projects, integrated with game factors; conduct empirical research considering various game scenarios to address issues including the centralized emission sources investment return, renewable power generation competition, policy and market influence, and technology lock-in of different generations by applying the integrated model; make further research on the optimization of spatial deployment for China's CCUS project through applying integrated model in the perspective of game among regions; and finally put forward corresponding policy implications from both national and regional level, so as to offer helpful references for CO2 emission abatement policy-making.

作为可实现化石能源大规模低碳化利用的技术，碳捕集、利用与封存（CCUS）具有巨大的减排潜力。以煤为主的资源禀赋决定了该技术是我国实现长期高效CO2减排的关键。但项目实施成本和收益极具不确定性以及国内相关政策不完善使其进展缓慢，同时技术应用早期阶段又受到多重博弈主体的复杂影响。因此，为使CCUS投资与政策研究更趋于实际，本项目把博弈要素纳入到评估中综合考量：提出多重博弈视角下CCUS项目投资决策的基本分析框架，揭示项目价值的不确定性影响机理；建立引入博弈要素的CCUS项目复合实物期权投资决策综合集成模型；应用综合集成模型开展CCUS项目不同碳排放源投资收益、外部可再生能源发电竞争、内在电价补贴与市场影响以及代际技术锁定等博弈与政策情景下的实证研究；进一步开展区域博弈视角下中国CCUS项目空间布局优化的应用研究；并在此基础上提出全国和区域层面的政策建议，为我国减排政策制定提供有益参考。

本项目围绕我国CCUS项目投资决策与政策相关关键科学问题，系统开展了四个方面的工作：（1）在充分参考国内外已有研究和CCUS示范工程基础上，系统研究了考虑博弈要素条件下CCUS项目的价值形成机理、CCUS项目投资决策方法、延迟和复合实物期权投资决策模型构建、CCUS源汇匹配优化建模等，建立了CCUS项目投资评价综合集成模型；（2）在模型研究基础上，考虑燃煤电厂、煤化工厂、钢铁厂和水泥厂等行业间，燃煤电厂、燃气电厂、可再生能源发电等电力行业内部排放主体间，CCUS代际技术主体间，以及政策与市场影响下的竞争博弈要素关系，对我国CCUS项目投资决策进行了实证研究；（3）进一步综合考虑区域地理特征差异和区域间各碳排放主体之间、运输管道及封存地之间的博弈竞争关系，结合我国实际情况，从ArcGIS和高分辨率源汇匹配角度对我国CCUS项目空间部属优化进行了研究；（4）基于上述研究成果，从全国和区域两个层面对我国CCUS项目投资和减排规划提出政策建议。共计发表论文42篇，包括发表在Energy & Environmental Science, Energy Economics, Ecological Economics, Global Environmental Change, Environmental Research Letters, Energy Policy等国际知名期刊的SCI/SSCI论文32篇，其中项目负责人作为第一/通讯作者发表学术论文29篇，出版专著3部，译著1部，入选全球前2%顶尖科学家榜单等。