碳导入视角下新能源发电项目投资与调度问题研究

Facing the international pressure from the anti-dumping &countervailing investigation and the emission peaking, as well as the domestic dilemma of excess capacity and the haze, it has become extremely urgent to vigorously develop the domestic renewable energy power generation market. With the accelerating development of the carbon trading market, carbon emissions will be exactly involved in economic activities as a scarce resource in near future. This study will mainly focus on the formation of investment intentions, the optimal investment planning and decision-making as well as the dynamic optimal low carbon economic dispatch strategies of renewable energy power generation project when carbon emissions factor are taken into consideration, using the methods of portfolio optimization, option game and stochastic optimization. In addition, multiple approaches to introduce carbon emission factors (introduced as goals, constraints or variables) will be given theoretically, as well as how carbon emissions factor influences the investment intentions, investment decisions and dispatch strategies of renewable energy power generation projects. This study could not only offer basis for scientific decision-making and dispatch for renewable energy power generation project but also provide the Chinese government with references to scientifically make decisions about the measurement of carbon-related policies’impacts, the adjustment of renewable energy industry policies and the healthy development of the renewable energy power generation industry. Besides, this study would also explore a scientific and feasible development idea on how the investment evaluation theory and power dispatch theory adapt the new normal low carbon economy.

面对外有“双反调查”、“减排峰值”压力，内有“产能过剩”、“雾霾笼罩”之困，大力开发国内新能源发电市场已刻不容缓。随着碳交易市场进程的加快，碳排放量作为一种稀缺资源导入经济活动将成为现实。本课题采用投资组合优化、基于期权博弈的多价值评估、随机动态优化等方法，重点研究导入碳要素后新能源发电项目的投资意向、最优投资规划与决策以及动态最优低碳经济调度等内容，从理论上给出碳要素的不同导入方式（目标导入、约束导入、变量导入）以及导入后对新能源发电项目投资意向、决策、调度产生的影响。通过该课题研究可以为新能源发电项目的科学决策与调度提供依据，为政府科学测定有关碳政策影响，调整新能源发电产业政策，促进新能源发电产业的健康发展，提供决策参考；同时在理论上也为传统的投资评价理论、电力生产调度理论如何适应低碳经济新常态探索出一条科学可行之路。

新能源的发展已成为应对全球气候变化、寻求低碳发展方式和实现可持续发展的重要突破口。对于亟待发展的新能源发电市场而言，导入碳排放因素影响，形成一整套新能源发电项目投资决策和运营调度的分析框架，提出一整套维护和推动新能源发电项目投资良性发展的策略和建议，这具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。本课题集中关注碳导入视角下我国新能源发电项目投资评价、碳导入视角下新能源发电项目运营调度策略、碳导入视角下新能源发电项目动态投资决策分析。本课题基于实物期权理论、动态规划和多目标规划等理论和方法，分别提出了新能源发电项目投资的价值评估模型、新能源发电项目投资实物期权评估模型、新能源发电项目组合投资优化模型、碳导入视角下新能源发电项目环境经济动态调度系列模型等一系列新能源发电项目投资和运营调度分析方法工具。相关研究结果包括：第一，尽管碳排放交易机制的实施大幅提高了项目投资净现值，但是仍然不足以弥补成本投入；第二，尽管目前的CO2价格不足以提前最优转型投资时间，但碳排放权交易机制的实施会极大的提高项目投资价值，并且提前最优投资时间；第三，在电力系统中增加风电出力所占比重虽然有利于经济性与环保性，但也给系统运行带来了更多风险，调度决策时需要充分挖掘Pareto最优集蕴含的信息，权衡环保性、经济性和不确定性等多方面因素；第四，综合可靠性、有效性约束，电力系统的发电成本、污染物排放与风电发展规模之间的线性关系并不显著；第五，在大规模风电接入情形下，电力生产过程中可能出现的风险因素影响着电力系统的调度决策。上述研究为新能源发电项目的科学决策与调度奠定了理论基础，同时也为科学测定碳排放交易机制对新能源发电项目投资和运营的影响提供了方法支持，并未促进新能源产业健康发展和政府碳交易价格、新能源项目投资补贴等政策制定提供了决策参考。