IPD项目交付模式下风险分担机制与理论模型研究

Integrated Project Delivery (IPD), based on the BIM (Building Information Modeling) technology, is emerging as a new delivery method in recent years. It features early involvement of all parties, collaboration and shared risk/reward which improve management performance in the life cycle. Therefore, reasonable risk sharing is the foundation of its successful implementation. This study aims to research on the mechanism and theoretical model of risk sharing in IPD project by incorporating the cooperative game theory. We establish the influencing factor system through analyzing the risk characteristics of IPD project, and meanwhile, identify its key factors which are measured by related operators of the 2-tuple linguistic model. Then we adopt the Structural Equation Model to study the factors' influencing path to the risk sharing mechanism. Furthermore, we improve the bargain function and utility function of the cooperative game model based on the hypothesis of participants' bounded rationality, and build the N-person Asymmetric Nash Bargain Solution for risk sharing in IPD project which is verified by Case Based Reasoning and empirical study. The research results of this project will not only provide theoretical support for decision-making of the risk sharing in IPD projects, but also enrich and perfect the multiparty risk-sharing theory of the relational contracts.

综合项目交付（Integrated Project Delivery，IPD）是近年来新兴的项目交付模式，该模式基于BIM技术通过项目各方的早期介入，协同合作，共担风险，共享收益，以提高项目生命周期的管理绩效。有效解决IPD风险分担问题是该交付模式成功实施的基础。本项目拟结合合作博弈理论对IPD模式下风险分担机制和理论模型进行研究。通过对IPD项目的风险特征分析，构建该模式下风险分担的影响因素体系，提取关键影响因素，并利用二元语义有关算子对其进行测度，进而通过结构方程模型分析各关键因素对风险分担机制的影响路径；基于参与者有限理性的假定，改进N人合作博弈的协商函数和效用函数,建立IPD项目风险分担的N人不对称Nash协商模型，并结合案例推理和实证分析对模型的适用性进行验证。本研究不仅可以为IPD项目风险分担决策提供理论支持，而且将对关系契约下多方参与的风险分担理论进行进一步丰富和完善。

综合项目交付（Integrated Project Delivery，IPD）是近年来新兴的项目交付模式，该模式基于BIM技术通过项目各方的早期介入，协同合作，共担风险，共享收益，以提高项目生命周期的管理绩效。有效解决IPD风险分担问题是该交付模式成功实施的基础。本项目拟结合合作博弈理论对IPD模式下风险分担机制和理论模型进行研究。结合IPD模式下参与方协同合作、风险共担、利益共享等特征，通过组织专家访谈，从关系风险、绩效风险和组织形式相关风险等不同维度初步探索并建立IPD模式下工程项目合作风险的来源体系，分析IPD模式下工程项目合作风险的来源及其关键影响因素；并利用二元语义有关算子对其进行测度，进而通过结构方程模型分析各关键因素对风险分担机制的影响路径；通过分析IPD模式下程项目关系风险的来源及影响因素分析，运用系统动力学建立IPD模式下工程项目关系风险演化的系统流图；基于参与者有限理性的假定，改进N人合作博弈的协商函数和效用函数,建立IPD项目风险分担的N人不对称Nash协商模型，对IPD项目的多方谈判进行了量化处理，并针对IPD项目的独特性，提出了用前景函数代替传统纳什谈判模型中的效用函数。