生态与经济目标权衡视角下的水资源适应性管理研究—以黑河流域为例

The Heihe River Basin (HRB) has been faced with multiple stresses from climate change, water scarcity and ecological conservation etc. In this case, adaptive water resource management has become increasingly critical to coordinated development of socio-economy and ecological environment, especially in the arid and semi-arid regions. The overall objective of this research is to systematically analyze adaptive water resource management strategies at both macro (county) and micro (household) levels from the perspectives of ecological and economic trade-offs in water resources utilization. Specifically, we will firstly clarify the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydro-ecological process and ecosystem services, then simulate water supply and ecosystem services during 2015-2030 under different climate change scenarios. Based on historical and scenario-based analyses of natural hydrological process and ecosystem services assessment, we intend to couple the eco-hydrological processes with socio-economic system water cycle. As trade-offs become particularly acute when resources are constrained and when the stakeholders' goals conflict, we will construct the stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) that incorporate ecological variables, to analyze trade-offs in water resource utilization with multiple stakeholder interests in the ecological and socioeconomic systems. Further, we will compile county-level input-output tables with water resource account embedded, based on which to analyze the role of macro-level adaptive water resource management strategies, such as industrial structural transformation and interregional trade etc., in regulating the contradictions of ecological and socioeconomic water resource supply and demands. In addition, we will conduct household survey at typical counties in the HRB. Based on these first-hand data, we will use a hybrid genetic algorithm to integrate the economic and biophysical models into one bilevel multi-objective optimization problem, to find considerable variations in trade-off values between agricultural production and ecosystem services at both the watershed and the household level, which will provide information for adaptive water resources management at the household level. Overall, our research will be of great significance to provide scientific support for adaptive water resources management decision-makings to achieve eco-environmental protection and green development in the HRB.

黑河流域面临气候变化、水资源稀缺、生态保护等多重压力，水资源适应性管理在流域社会经济与生态环境协调发展中逐渐凸显。本项目从生态与经济目标权衡视角研究黑河流域多尺度的水资源适应性管理策略。本研究集成多源数据，从生态水文角度系统分析气候变化与人类活动影响下流域水文响应机制与生态系统服务演变特征，预估气候变化情景下水资源供给与生态系统服务的时空演变趋势；耦合生态与社会经济系统水循环，构建引入生态变量的随机前沿生产函数，分析流域水资源利用的生态-经济多利益主体权衡关系；编制嵌入水资源账户投入产出表，评估气候变化情景下宏观尺度产业转型、水资源效率提升、虚拟水贸易等措施对缓解生态与经济发展水资源供需矛盾的作用；开展典型县区入户调研，构建耦合生态与经济模型的多目标双层优化模型，基于生态与经济目标的权衡分析提炼农户尺度水资源适应性管理策略，为黑河流域可持续发展的水资源综合管理决策提供科学支撑。

黑河流域面临气候变化、水资源稀缺、生态保护等多重压力，水资源适应性管理在流域社会经济与生态环境协调发展中逐渐凸显。本项目从生态与经济目标权衡视角研究黑河流域多尺度的水资源适应性管理策略。本研究集成多源数据，选取张掖市为研究区，分析了黑河流域张掖市生态系统服务演变及解析影响生态系统服务的关键驱动因素；其次，研究构建了多情景方案，预测了不同情景下黑河流域张掖市生态系统服务价值的变化；研究引进生产函数思维，剖析了黑河流域张掖市粮食生产与关键生态系统服务的权衡关系，进一步解析了其时空演变特征；在气候变化背景下，研究探讨了各部门间水资源利用的变化，提炼了水资源适应性管理对策；最后，研究构建了双层优化模型，综合考虑了流域经济效益与生态效益，进一步分析了双层目标优化下的张掖水价制定政策并提炼建议。