基于生态与经济需水均衡的黑河流域水资源管理策略研究

The scarcity of water resources determines the growing competition for economic growth and ecological water requirement in arid zones. The ecological environment continues to deteriorate because the economic development squeezes ecological water requirement. Government management policy-oriented water resources management measures brings little effect because of its lack of sustainability and subsequent rebound effect. To ease the contradictions between economic growth and intensified ecological water requirement and to improve the policy's effectiveness, it is very necessary to systematically study the optimal allocation methods of water resources balancing the ecological and economic water demand and carry out the empirical research. The overall objectives of this study are:(1) to identify the key factors influencing the benefits of unilateral water; (2) to construct a balanced analysis model based on the game theory and optimize the ratio of ecological and economic water demand; (3) to provide decision-making reference for improving water resources management policy. Based on the survey panel data with scientific sampling and covering different farmer level in Heihe River Basin, the project will carry on the causal analysis to factors which affect the economic water demand including the water price, the water saving technology, the irrigation water quantity, the farmers' characteristic, the institutional and environmental factors; establish the water price adjustment mechanism and reform model guiding people's water behavior; and ultimately put forward to policy recommendations promoting eco-economic harmony and improving the water resources management mechanism.

水资源的稀缺性决定了干旱区区域经济用水和生态需水竞争的日益严重，经济发展挤占生态用水，生态环境持续恶化。政府管理政策主导的水资源管理措施因其缺乏持续性而引起的反弹效应导致收效甚微，为缓解经济和生态用水激化的矛盾及提高政策的有效性，亟需系统地研究权衡生态与经济需水量的优化配置方法，并开展实证研究。本研究的总体目标是识别影响单方水效益的关键因素，构建博弈论理论的均衡分析模型，优化生态与经济需水量配置，为完善水资源管理政策提供决策参考。因此，项目以黑河流域为研究区，借助一套科学抽样且覆盖不同农户层面的调研面板数据，对影响经济用水量的水价、节水技术、灌溉水量、农户特征及制度环境因素进行因果分析，探究水价调节机制及改革模式，引导人的用水行为，最终提出促进生态经济和谐、完善水资源管理机制的政策建议。

干旱区水资源稀缺导致区域经济和生态用水竞争凸显，经济发展挤占生态用水，生态环境风险加剧。构建权衡生态与经济用水的优化配置方法，评估政策主导的水资源管理措施效用，有助于为流域生态与经济系统间用水矛盾的权衡提供决策参考。研究以黑河流域为研究区，从探求干旱区水资源的经济和生态属性入手，基于空间数据与社会经济集提取出反映生态和经济需水特征的关键指标，利用高时空分辨率的蒸散发数据和多区域投入产出模型分别核算了黑河流域生态与经济用水及未来需水；依据黑河分水曲线设计了经济发展优先和生态环境可持续两种情景，基于边际效率指标构建了权衡黑河流域生态-经济用水的弹性系数，评估了黑河下游生态系统恢复的经济代价。此外，研究综合在黑河流域开展的两期调研面板数据集，考虑水价、节水技术、灌溉水量、农户特征及制度环境因素对经济用水量变化的影响，识别了关键驱动因子；进而利用需求弹性理论测算了灌溉用水需求价格弹性，建立了黑河流域农业水价调节机制。结果表明，维持黑河下游每平方米生态健康需以损失流域0.11元的GDP为代价。模型评估发现，水价是决定黑河流域农业用水效率的关键因素。该区作物灌溉用水需求价格缺乏弹性（-0.26），当水价上升至0.27元/m³出现水价弹性效应。黑河中游的水价试点制度节水效果显著，社会经济系统总用水量节约了10.2%。该项目提出了维持生态健康兼顾经济用水需求的制度管理政策，为干旱区流域水资源管理提供决策支持。