幸福导向的中国东西部流域水资源管理模式比较研究——以钱塘江与黑河为例

Happiness is the ultimate goal of the water resources allocation and management. It must be changed that water resources management model basing on the economic benefits, in order to realize the sustainable happy life of people in Hei-He River Basin. It time that a new water resources management mode of river basin should be constructed. In this mode, happiness is as the goal oriented, and the relationship among ecology, water, economy and society is coordinated by integrating methods. The research topic of this project is to construct a new water resources management mode of happiness orientation in Hei-He River Basin and Qian-Tang River Basin，based on literature data, survey of basin, basin analysis perspective . Research contents are as follows: (1) studying differences of the present water resources management mode between in Hei-He River Basin and Qian-Tang River Basin, using the water budget constraint offline principles to happiness as the goal. (2) Collecting two basin stakeholders opinion by well-being factor scale, through the field investigation. Based on the truths about the life of rural residents,to develop the subjective well-being scale(SWBS-RR) which was suitable to rural residents and provide the basis for the research. The items of discriminate analysis,scale examination were studied in a random sample from Hei-He River Basin and Qian-Tang River Basin,by which make upquestionnaire (3) Analyzing the difference characteristics and sweet and sour source structure of residents happiness under different water environment and its system environment conditions.(4) Solving the inner conflict of water resources management in Hei-He River Basin and Qian-Tang River Basin. There are the different objective function and mechanism design in Hei-He River Basin and Qian-Tang River Basin. So there are different means to solve the inner conflict of water resources management in those two River Basin. The former is public policy means as virtual water trade and fiscal transfer payment, the later is modern market economy means as water right transaction. (5) Making comprehensive research of water resources management for happiness oriented in Hei-He River Basin and Qian-Tang River Basin, Using coupling control principle of endogenous variable and passenger variable. This project tries to establish new mode of water resources management happiness oriented ground on the water budget constraint model in Hei-He River Basin and Qian-Tang River Basin, based on the difference of the coupling system for river basin ecology, water, society and economy, aiming at offering a new idea of water resources management that to improve the residents happiness is as the ultimate goal of water resources management goal, providing scientific support for decision-making to achieve water resources sustainability and region sustainable development.

流域幸福是水资源管理的终极目标。为了实现流域居民可持续的幸福生活，必须改变基于比较利益的传统水资源管理模式，在幸福导向下集成处理流域生态－水文－经济－社会之间的协调关系。本项目在文献数据、流域调研基础上建立流域比较分析视角，采用水预算约束线下的幸福导向原理与方法，进行钱塘江与黑河流域水资源管理模式比较研究；应用幸福量表调查并收集流域利益相关者意见，分析不同水环境及经济社会环境下流域居民幸福感差异特征与苦乐源结构；运用虚拟水贸易等市场经济与公共政策支持手段，协同解决多约束与跨时约束条件下水资源管理目标函数与机制设计的内在冲突问题；运用流域内生变量与外生变量耦合调控原理，进行幸福水资源管理的流域比较综合研究、经验借鉴与跨流域治理机制比较。项目确立以提高流域居民幸福为终极目标的水管目标新理念，探索建立基于流域差异性分析的生态－水文－经济系统耦合的幸福导向水资源管理新模式。

随着工业化过程中的经济规模扩大，居民消费水平提高，水资源消耗量持续增长。水需求与水供给之间的矛盾、生态需水与经济需水之间的矛盾、流域内各用水主体之间的矛盾越来越突出。在用水总量增加、水生态退化、用水主体多元化、水资源利用多样化、流域间水资源配置与产业配置问题错综复杂的背景下，如何在一种科学、正确的水资源管理理念与价值导向下，把上述矛盾协调处理好，是实现水资源可持续利用、经济社会可持续发展的关键环节。这种管理价值理念就是面向流域与跨流域居民幸福或者叫幸福导向的水资源管理理念及其指导下的科学管理方法。因为，水资源配置、管理与利用的终极价值目标，是为了让人们获得更加可持续的幸福生活。并且，幸福导向治水的重要性通过流域比较分析可以更加清晰的显示出来。. 课题通过基于学说史视角的幸福思想研究，确立了幸福导向的水资源管理理论基础；通过开发与构建基于经济社会发展的幸福指标体系和水幸福感指标体系，为开展流域经济社会调查与居民水幸福感调查奠定了指标结构基础；通过流域调查与统计分析，得到了钱塘江与黑河流域居民的水幸福感指数影响因子分布状况，为流域水资源管理政策改进提供了基于流域居民“说出来”的幸福感体验依据；通过建立幸福导向的水预算约束与管理模型，构建了面向流域居民幸福的水资源均衡配置模式，并进行了实证有效性检验；通过运用可拓工程理论和物元分析法，对钱塘江流域水质量进行评价分析；运用超模博弈分析方法，具体比较分析了黑河与钱塘江在不同经济域、社会域、生态域条件下的水资源管理策略演化及其递增效应，为提出基于流域经济—社会—生态系统比较分析的政策改进提供了理论基础；运用水足迹核算分析方法，对钱塘江与黑河流域水资源问题及管理对策进行比较研究，并对钱塘江流域实施“五水共治”的公共政策效应进行评价，形成了新的水资源管理与政策建议。