买、卖方分析师的预测行为差异与经济后果研究：基于基金内部数据的实证分析

Analyst research has been the focus and hot issues of scholars. Currently, researches on the sell-side analysts are numerous, but researches on buy-side analysts are rare. Previous studies have made a significant contribution on understanding the role of analyst behavior, however, because buy-side analysts forecast data are not available, analysts predictive behavior is still poorly understood. Such researches are less involved in foreign literature, and also a blank in national literature. Analyst's decision-making process has been a unsolved " mystery of black box ", while researches on both buy-side and sell-side analysts and then the economic consequences of such difference between both side analysts will be the future research directions. In this paper, Using the internal Fund's data and the external sell-side analysts data, tests the behavior difference between the buy-side and the sell-side analysts forecasting, and on the basis of these tests the corresponding economic consequences. The main contribution of this paper is to expand the scope of the study analyst behavior. This program breaks through the limitations of traditional research, and first examines the differences behavior between different analysts, which fills the gaps in the literature of analysts. This article focuses on the rapid rising background of buy-side analysts, and has played a seminal contribution on the existing literature. The research results can provide a reference for decision-maker of the listed companies, investors and regulators.

分析师研究一直是学者关注的重点和热点问题。当前对卖方分析师的相关研究可谓汗牛充栋，然而对买方分析师的研究却是凤毛麟角。以往研究对理解分析师的行为和作用做出了重大贡献，囿于买方分析师预测数据的不可获得，对于买方分析师的预测作用仍知之甚少，国外文献较少涉及，国内文献则属空白。分析师的决策过程一直是个未解的“黑匣之谜”，而研究买、卖方分析师的决策过程及其经济后果将是未来的研究方向。本课题利用基金内部的买方分析师数据和外部的卖方分析师数据，检验买、卖方分析师之间在预测行为上的差异，并在此基础上研究分析师预测的经济后果。本课题的主要贡献是：拓展了分析师行为的研究范围。本课题突破传统研究的数据限制，首次检验了不同分析师的预测行为差异，填补了买方分析师预测文献的空白。本课题着眼于我国买方分析师迅速崛起的特殊背景，对已有文献起到了开创性的贡献。相关研究成果可以为上市公司、投资者和监管机构进行决策提供参考。

分析师研究一直是学者关注的重点和热点问题。当前对卖方分析师的相关研究可谓汗牛充栋，然而对买方分析师的研究却是凤毛麟角。以往研究对理解分析师的行为和作用做出了重大贡献，囿于买方分析师预测数据的不可获得，对于买方分析师的预测作用仍知之甚少，国外文献较少涉及，国内文献则属空白。分析师的决策过程一直是个未解的“黑匣之谜”，而研究买、卖方分析师的决策过程及其经济后果将是未来的研究方向。本课题利用基金内部的买方分析师数据和外部的卖方分析师数据，检验买、卖方分析师之间在预测行为上的差异，并在此基础上研究分析师预测的经济后果。本课题的主要贡献是：拓展了分析师行为的研究范围。本课题突破传统研究的数据限制，首次检验了不同分析师的预测行为差异，填补了买方分析师预测文献的空白。本课题着眼于我国买方分析师迅速崛起的特殊背景，对已有文献起到了开创性的贡献。相关研究成果可以为上市公司、投资者和监管机构进行决策提供参考。