考虑乘客异质性的公交通勤行为与福利分析研究

The empirical studies in traffic networks show that the travelers' heterogeneities play pivotal roles in formulating the urban commuting behaviors. However, the traditional way of modeling the passenger congestion in transit system generally assumes that all commuters have the same preferences. This is, of course, an unrealistic simplification: people differ in when they prefer to arrive, how they value arriving at a less-than-most-desired moment (i.e. values of schedule delay), how they value travel time, how sensitive they are to transit in-vehicle congestion, and so on. .In this project, we firstly assume the preferred arrival time is the same for every passengers and focus on the heterogeneity of sensitive cost to in-vehicle congestion and the schedule delay cost for each passenger. In a typical multi-origin single destination transit network, a commuter equilibrium model will be formulated to capture the departure time choice problem faced by the transit passengers, who should make the trade-off between in-vehicle congestion cost and schedule delay cost. The equilibrium is defined as a state that no passenger could have the chance to change their choice unilaterally with less travel cost. Consequently, the identical preferred arrival time assumption is relaxed, and a correspondence is expected to build between the heterogeneity distributions of passengers and the passengers flow profiles in the transit system..Meanwhile, the empirical studies will be carried out in Beijing with the theoretical analysis. The revealed preference data and stated preference data will be collected by flow observation in transit station and questionnaire survey, respectively. These data will be used in calibrating the key parameters in the theoretical models..Finally, based the findings on the passengers' heterogeneity in public transit, the welfare evaluations will be provided for various transit operations plans and different pricing strategies. These evaluations will be helpful for the local authorities in searching more effective and efficient public transit management policies.

道路出行实证研究表明出行者异质性在研究通勤行为时不可或缺。但是在传统的公交乘客通勤行为建模中通常假设乘客同质，没有考虑人们在理想到达时间、车厢内拥挤感受和延误时间成本等多方面的异质性。.本项目在理论研究方面首先假设乘客理想到达时间一致，在多起点单讫点的公交网络上建立基于拥挤/延误成本异质性的乘客出行选择均衡模型。然后放松乘客理想到达时间一致的假设，通过解析分析和数值仿真方法建立乘客异质性与公交系统内客流分布的对应关系。.在实证调查方面将组织人员在北京观测地铁系统乘客流量，并采用问卷调查的方式对公交系统早晚高峰期乘客的异质性做抽样调查，校正模型参数。.最后，基于乘客异质性的研究，对公交系统福利进行分析，研究不同的公交运营方案、定价策略对乘客出行的影响，找到有效的公交管理政策。这将为城市公交系统乘客出行需求的形成、聚集提供理论的解释，为公交系统优化提供依据。

本项目通过均衡分析的方法，利用数理推导证明乘客异质性情况下其出行行为特征及在公交系统内的客流分布特征，找出分布特征与拥挤、迟到惩罚等成本异质程度间的关系，并通过采集实证数据来度量通勤乘客的无形的差异化程度，最后利用这些性质和结论，研究了公交定价和运营方案对社会福利的影响。通过数理分析，研究和构建出行成本函数，以此分析出行者异质性的构成，并针对拥挤成本、延误时间成本及期望到达时间等因素的异质性进行分析，达到系统分析乘客异质性的研究目的；然后，通过模型数理推导得到了公交系统内出行时空分布曲线形状和乘客异质性分布之间的基本函数关系；接下来，基于对异质性的理论分析和客流分布观测的结果，对均衡模型中的关键参数进行校正。并采用问卷调查的方式，搜集通勤乘客的主观信息，验证我们利用观测数据所估计的异质性分布特性；最后，基于乘客异质性，在分析和评价各公交定价策略的基础上，采用福利分析和激励经济理论的分析方法，基于乘客异质性设计有效的公交定价方案和运营策略，以此合理诱导交通需求，提高公交系统运作效率，缓解城市拥堵状况。.本课题2013-2016年度累计正式发表标注论文16篇，其中新被SCI检索2篇，EI检索4篇，2篇发表在《管理科学学报》，5篇论文发表在国内/国际会议；另有已完成的论文中，被《管理科学学报》、《系统仿真学报》接收论文2篇。举办国际学术研讨会议3次。