“一带一路”建设的福利效应估算

"The Belt and Road" construction is not only a turning point for China going out, but alsp an important measure to promote the globalization process. However, how much welfare can "The Belt and Road" construction bring to and the participants, which is an urgent problem to be solved. Therefore, this project attempts to base on the model from Eaton and Kortum(2002) under perfect competing market to estimate the welfare of "The Belt and Road" construction, with considering the impact of intermediate goods, trade imbalance and departments contact. In the meantime, the project also tries to overcome the defects of precise measure of trade costs in the calculation of trade elasticity, and makes efforts to accurately measure trade cost to estimate Chinese Trade Elasticities. Moreover, the project will discuss the mechanism of the welfare effect of "The Belt and Road" construction further. As globalization is in the balanced development, this project has an important significance both theoretically and practically for providinge a solid theoretical foundation and powerful empirical study for national construction on "The Belt and Road, for giving some countermeasures as the reference of building regional integration and for improving the participants’ confidence after computing their welfare of joining "The Belt and Road" construction.

“一带一路”建设不仅是中国走出去的转折点，也是推动全球化进程继续深化的重要举措。但是，“一带一路”建设给中国及各参与国带来的福利效应究竟如何，这是一个亟待解决的问题。因此，本项目试图基于Eaton和Kortum（2002）理论模型估算完全竞争市场框架下“一带一路”建设的福利效应，同时考虑中间品投入、贸易不平衡和部门间联系的影响；同时，本项目尝试克服在测算贸易弹性时没有精确衡量贸易成本的缺陷，将通过精确衡量贸易成本测算中国的贸易弹性，并对中间的影响机制展开探讨，深化对“一带一路”建设福利效应的研究。在全球化进程非均衡发展的当代，研究将为中国建设“一带一路”提供坚实的理论基础和丰富的经验检验，且在为建设区域一体化提供可借鉴的对策参考的同时，也为“一带一路”建设沿线各国计算各自的福利效应，从而提高参与国的信心等都具有重要的理论和现实意义。

“一带一路”建设不仅是中国走出去的转折点，也是推动全球化进程继续深化的重要举措。但是，“一带一路”建设给中国及各参与国带来的福利效应究竟如何，这是一个亟待解决的问题。因此，本项目基于Eaton和Kortum（2002）和Caliendo和Parro（2015），建立包含多行业、中间品投入与行业之间投入产出联系的一般均衡模型，得到估算“一带一路”建设对中国的福利效应公式，并且将其分解为来源于贸易条件和贸易流效应两部分。基于2012年CEPII-BACI数据、World Integrated Trade Solutions关税数据与OECD-STAN投入产出数据，本项目校准模型中的劳动份额与投入产出份额等参数，利用精确帽子代数方法求解一般均衡模型，计算“一带一路”建设对中国的福利效应。为了研究福利的影响机制，本项目考察了中间品投入、行业之间投入产出与贸易失衡的影响。主要结果显示，“一带一路”建设使得中国消费者的实际工资增加了0.314%，消费者福利增加了0.14%。“一带一路”建设也提升了绝大多数“一带一路”沿线国家消费者的实际工资和福利，然而其他大部分非“一带一路”沿线国家的消费者遭受了工资下降和福利损失。“一带一路”建设对中国消费者的正福利效应主要来源于贸易流效应，而贸易条件恶化使得中国消费者遭受福利损失。分行业结果显示中国消费者获得福利较多的行业主要有“采矿和采石业”、“计算机、电子和光学产品业”与“机械和设备制造业”。影响机制结果表明，中间品投入与行业之间投入产出都能对福利产生较大影响，而贸易失衡对福利估算的影响不大。