中国与“一带一路”沿线国家跨境电力贸易的潜力评估、效应模拟与机制设计研究

The interconnection of energy infrastructure is an important contributor in reducing trade costs and promoting the transformation of the industrial structure. Electricity demand is also the most important basic energy demand in the national economic development of the countries along the “Belt and Road”. How to promote China's “Belt and Road” through cross-border trade in electricity, how to rationally allocate power resources and achieve the balance of regional power have become urgent problems to be solved. This project will examine the development trend of regional electricity supply and demand by analyzing the characteristics of cross-border electricity trade between China and the “Belt and Road”, construct a theoretical framework and model of cross-border trade in electricity, and simulate and analyze its economic impact. In addition, the trading mechanism of power trade market will be further explored from the perspective of transaction agents. This study is expected to identify (1) the potential countries that China should carry out the cross-border electricity trade along the “Belt and Road”; (2) select the timing of cooperation among China's power industries for cross-border electricity trade along the “Belt and Road”; (3) The micro-trade patterns of bilateral or multilateral power trade. Finally the results of our project will develop the scientific countermeasures and concrete measures for China to carry out cross-border electricity trade cooperation with countries along the “Belt and Road”.

能源基础设施的互联互通是降低贸易成本、促进产业结构转型的重要因素，电力需求也是“一带一路”沿线国家国民经济发展中最重要的基础能源需求。如何通过跨境电力贸易推进中国的“一带一路”建设，合理配置电力资源、实现区域性的电力供需平衡成为当前亟待解决的问题。本项目通过分析中国与“一带一路”沿线国家跨境电力贸易的特征事实，预测区域电力供需的发展趋势，构建跨境电力贸易的理论框架和模型模拟分析其经济效应，并从交易主体角度出发探究电力贸易市场的交易机制。通过研究，拟（1）识别与中国开展“一带一路”沿线跨境电力贸易的潜力国家；（2）选择中国电力工业开展“一带一路”沿线国家跨境电力贸易的合作时序；（3）设计双边或多边电力贸易的微观交易模式，最终形成中国与“一带一路”沿线国家开展跨境电力贸易合作的科学对策和具体措施。

“一带一路”倡议提出以来，已经进入全面务实合作新阶段，推动基础设施的联通成为推进“一带一路”建设的首要条件。能源基础设施的互联互通是降低贸易成本、促进产业结构转型的重要因素，电力需求也是“一带一路”沿线国家国民经济发展中最重要的基础能源需求。在过去三年里，课题组团队按照原定的计划和研究目标，结合当前我国与“一带一路”沿线国家的电力供需与贸易格局，从交易主体角度对电力贸易的形成机理和交易机制进行了广泛而深刻的研究，并取得了新的研究进展及重要结果。具体而言，项目研究了（1）“一带一路”沿线国家电力贸易的潜力评估研究；（2）“一带一路”沿线国家电力贸易的效应模拟研究；（3）我国与“一带一路”沿线国家跨境电力贸易的市场机制设计研究 ；（4）我国与“一带一路”沿线国家开展跨境电力贸易合作的应对政策和建设思路研究。其次，根据研究需要，新增了必要的几项研究内容，并且获得相应的成果，丰富了研究目标与内容框架。主要增加内容为：（1）基于不确定性研究中国经济增长与世界经济；（2）基于电力贸易角度研究“一带一路”区域合作与治理；（3）基于全球价值链整合研究中美经贸关系与生产要素配置。在课题研究的四年中，项目负责人及其团队实际完成优质论文27篇，其中5篇收录于CSSCI，22篇国际SSCI期刊，项目负责人为第一作者10篇，项目组多次主办或参与国内国际学术交流。同时项目组培养了学术硕士研究生1名，专业硕士研究生20余名。本项目所构建的“一带一路”沿线国家跨境电力贸易市场交易机制设计，有助于寻求跨境电力贸易的最优市场行为和相应的最优开发策略，检验“一带一路”电力互联贸易的经济收益。项目研究提供的成果，既可以为政府制定电力贸易宏观调控政策、开展区域电力贸易投资提供理论支持，也可以通过收集数据应用于模型中，定量分析和指导实践发展中出现的现实问题。