粮食主产区耕地休耕规模、区域及模式研究：以湖北省为例

The implementation of arable land fallow is a major policy decision made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council focusing on the prominent contradictions in agricultural development and changes in the supply and demand of grain markets at home and abroad. The main grain producing area is the core area of grain production in China. The long-term high-load operation results in the serious pollution of cultivated land, and the grain increasing production capacity has reached the limit. The comprehensive two-child policy will significantly increase the demand for food in the medium and long term. The cultivated land should be revitalized, and the stamina of agricultural development need strengthening, making a good reserve for the emergence of a serious food shortage. The academic circles have just started the research of fallow farming in our country, and the theoretical foundation is weak. The scale and mode of fallow farming in the main grain producing areas need to be respond scientifically..This study first analyzes the situation of food security and cultivated land utilization in the main producing areas, summarizes the internal and external environment of fallow, and puts forward a method to measure the scale of fallow by improving the pressure index of cultivated land and combining with the system dynamics, taking Hubei as an example, and forecasts the flexible scale of fallow. Secondly, the system of fallow area identification and evaluation is constructed, and the maximum information entropy principle (MIEP) is used to identify fallow area. With the Self-Organizing Feature Map (SOFM) method, the spatial and temporal configuration of fallow area is analyzed, and the specific implementation mode of fallow is put forward. With a view to the central and local governments as a whole to promote fallow work, establish a suitable policy framework for land fallow, promote the structural reform of the supply side of agriculture and provide theoretical guidance and action guidance.

实行耕地休耕，是党中央、国务院着眼于我国农业发展突出矛盾和国内外粮食市场供求变化做出的重大决策部署。粮食主产区是中国粮食生产核心区域，长期高负荷运转导致耕地污染严重，粮食增产力已达极限。全面二孩政策在中长期将显著增加粮食需求，耕地亟待修养生息，增强农业发展后劲，为出现严重的粮食缺口做好储备。学术界针对我国休耕研究刚起步，理论基础薄弱，主产区休耕的规模、模式等问题亟待给予科学回应。. 本研究首先分析主产区粮食安全和耕地利用状况，阐释主产区休耕内外部环境，通过改进耕地压力指数并结合系统动力学提出休耕规模测度方法，以湖北为例，预测休耕弹性规模。其次，构建休耕区域识别评价体系，采用最大信息熵方法识别休耕区，借助自组织特征映射网络方法，分析休耕区时空配置模式，并提出休耕的具体实施模式。以期为中央和地方政府统筹推进休耕工作，推进农业供给侧结构性改革提供理论指导和行动指南。

实行耕地休耕，是党中央、国务院着眼于我国农业发展突出矛盾和国内外粮食市场供求变化做出的重大决策部署。本研究立足粮食主产区的耕地资源利用现状，首先基于粮食安全与生态安全双重约束构建粮食主产区耕地休耕最大规模测算和仿真模型，提出休耕规模弹性边界的确定方法并以湖北省为实证区域进行仿真预测；其次，利用湖北省等粮食主产区585户农户调查数据和有序Logit模型，对粮食主产区农户参与休耕意愿及其影响因素进行研究，并进一步地探究价值感知和风险感知对粮食主产区农户休耕意愿的深层次影响；再者，基于计划行为理论构建结构方程模型分析生态认知对粮食主产区农户休耕行为的影响；最后，有针对性的对粮食主产区耕地休耕问题提出系列对策建议，以期为中央和地方政府统筹推进休耕工作，推进农业供给侧结构性改革提供理论指导和行动指南。.研究发现，（1）基于休耕规模适宜指数所构建的耕地休耕最大规模测算模型能够较好地测度粮食主产区的休耕规模，测算发现，2017-2036年仿真期内,湖北省的耕地可持续利用状况不容乐观且粮食安全稳定状态终将被打破，该发展态势也是对其他区域乃至全国可能面临的耕地资源短缺问题和粮食安全危机的预警。（2）粮食主产区休耕具有一定的农户意愿基础，且休耕补贴高低明显影响农户休耕意愿，文化程度、外出务工经历、劳动力比重和农户对休耕政策了解程度对农户休耕意愿有显著正向影响。（3）粮食主产区农户的生态价值、经济价值和情感价值感知对其休耕意愿有显著正向影响，风险感知对其休耕意愿有显著负向影响。（4）生态认知对粮食主产区农户休耕行为具有显著促进作用，且行为态度的中介效应显著反映出加强地方政府和基层农村集体组织对休耕政策的宣传引导，提高农户对休耕收益的预期是有效推行休耕制度的重点举措。