耕地流转对粮食生产的影响效应及机理——以河南省为例

In recent years, the cultivated land transfer in China accelerates constantly and the scale continues to grow, the transfer area also extended from the coastal developed area to the traditional agriculture area. “Non-agriculturization”, “non-food”, reduced productivity of arable land and other issues arise in some regions in this process, this probably affect the national food security. What impact do the cultivated land transfer in the major grain-producing area have on regional food production? What is the internal mechanism? Aimed at these problems, this project took the major grain producing area Henan province as the research case, through large-scale peasant household survey, summarized the main mode and regional differences of cultivated land transfer in Henan Province; analyzed the influence effect of the cultivated land transfer on the food production in the province and also in different types of regions within the province; calculated the critical value of cultivated land transfer which may threaten regional food security and the capability of grain export in Henan province under certain conditions; according to the theory framework ‘element change - household’s response - regional effect’, using the econometric model to analyze the influence that the cultivated land transfer on the grain-crop ratio, multiple crop index and input intensity, and based on these results, sorted out the inner mechanism of the influence of cultivated land transfer on grain production, and provided decision-making basis for stabilizing grain production in major grain-producing area and ensuring national food security.

近年来，我国耕地流转速度不断加快、规模持续增长，流转区域也从沿海发达地区向传统农区扩展。在此过程部分区域出现了“非农化”、“非粮化”、耕地生产率下降等问题，可能威胁到国家粮食安全。耕地流转对区域粮食生产有何影响？其内在机理是什么？针对这些问题，本项目以粮食主产区河南省为研究案例，通过大规模的农户调研，总结河南省耕地流转的主要模式及区域差异；探析耕地流转对全省及省内不同类型区粮食生产的影响效应；在一定条件约束下估算河南省耕地流转可能威胁区域粮食安全和粮食外调能力的临界比例；按照“要素变化-农户响应-区域效应”理论框架，采用计量经济模型分析耕地流转对农户种植结构、复种指数、生产投入的影响，在此基础上理清耕地流转影响粮食生产的内在机理，为稳定粮食主产区粮食生产，保障国家粮食安全提供决策依据。

随着中国耕地流转速度不断加快、规模持续增长，耕地流转对粮食安全的影响成为国家必须高度关注的问题。项目以粮食主产区河南省为研究案例，通过全省随机抽样调研及典型类型农区专题调研，按照“要素变化-农户响应-区域效应”的研究逻辑，采用计量经济模型，分析河南省耕地流转的区域差异、对粮食生产的影响效应、影响机理等。研究发现：①河南省耕地流转具有以下特征：总流转发生率呈上升趋势，转出发生率大于转入发生率；山地丘陵区耕地流转发生率高于平原地区；耕地流转的影响因素主要包括户主特征、家庭收入、非农工作地、耕地质量、村庄企业数量和到市区距离；家庭特征是影响平原地区耕地流转的重要因素，村庄特征对山地丘陵的影响更大。②农户间耕地流转在一定程度上会影响河南省的粮食生产和粮食安全。流入户的耕地粮食现实生产力显著低于非流转户，城市郊区尤为明显，其次为平原中等通达旱地水浇地中等收入农区；流入户的耕地压力指数明显高于非流转户；河南省若要保证500kg的人均粮食占有量并完成每年200亿kg的外调任务，农户间耕地流转率不能超过53.79%。③耕地流转对粮食生产的影响机制：租金的存在使流入户倾向于选择比较利益更高的经济作物；耕地流转使土地集中到“能人”手上加速了耕地的“非粮化”；土地集中形成的规模经济效益更能刺激农户种植经济作物；报酬递增和区域示范效应进一步强化经济作物种植决策；仍以种粮为业的流入户通过更加精细的作业模式提高了粮食单产。④农户种植决策具有复杂的演化机理。农户作物选择是自然资源禀赋、市场邻近、比较利益、路径依赖与路径破坏、风险研判等因素共同作用的结果，是不断的路径破坏-创造-再破坏-再创造的过程。