提升弱势群体自主招生参与的公平与效率：关系模型与政策改革研究

Autonomous enrollment was identified as the basic direction of future College Entrance Examination (Gao Kao) reform in China by the Third Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee, but the issue of equity and efficiency which has emerged during the decade of its running restricted the popularization of the policy. This program will probe the core conception, mathematical expression, logical progression, and mechanism of equity and efficiency thoroughly, by combining the relation model and the intervention research. The program will take vulnerable groups of students as the object of research, and apply not only the method of questionnaire to gather large scale of data, but also, the method of experiment, and the method of institution analysis. In this program, the research into the relations among factors of equity, especially the extraction of the mediator (rate of application), is favorable toward seeking measures of solution from multi-dimension of origin, process and outcome; and the research of the mechanism of equity-efficiency will help reveal the process “Black Box” of the production of the issue of equity, to some degree, and is of important theoretically value in leading the present inverse research of equity-efficiency towards the research of dialectical relations of equity-efficiency. This program will develop an early warning system of the operation state of autonomous enrollment, help strengthen the scientific decision awareness and the thought of base line during decision-making procedure of policy decision makers. Furthermore, the program will also seek for feasible path to solve problems from practical aspect, through field measurement of effects of 3 main reform actions at the level of high school, using the method of experiment research primarily in China, and contribute to help improve the participation state of vulnerable groups into autonomous enrollment in China.

自主招生被十八届三中全会确定为未来高考改革的基本方向，但其运行10年来呈现的公平与效率问题制约了政策的推广。本项目以弱势群体考生为研究对象，运用关系模型与干预研究相融合的方式，不仅采用问卷法大规模收集数据，同时采用实验法、制度分析法等，深入探究公平与效率的核心概念、数学表达、主次关系与作用机理。对公平各要素之间关系的探究尤其是对中介变量（报名率）的提取，有利于从起点、过程和结果多维度寻求解决问题的对策；对效率-公平作用机理的探究将部分揭开公平问题产生的过程“黑箱”，将现有公平效率的对立研究引向二者的辩证关系研究，具有重要的理论价值。在实践层面上，有望开发出一套自主招生运行状况预警系统，将强化决策者科学决策意识及决策过程中的底线思维；还将首次运用实验研究方法，在中学层面对3种主要改革举措的效果进行实测，从行动层面探寻解决问题的可行路径，为促进中国弱势群体自主招生参与状况的改善做出积极贡献。

本项目以弱势群体考生为研究对象，运用关系模型与干预研究相融合的方式，采用问卷法大规模收集数据，采用实验法深入探究公平与效率的核心概念、数学表达、主次关系与作用机理。研究高度关注对公平各要素之间关系的探究尤其是对中介变量（报名率）的提取，研究选取海南省昌江县、东方市、琼中县为实验对象，通过实验干预和长线追踪，从起点、过程和结果多维度探寻了解决自主招生公平问题的对策；对效率-公平作用机理的探究，部分揭开了公平问题产生的过程“黑箱”，将现有公平效率的对立研究引向二者的辩证关系研究，具有重要的理论价值。在实践层面上，研究首次运用实验研究方法，在中学层面对3种主要政策举措的效果进行了实测，具有方法上的创新性。研究从行动层面探寻解决问题的可行路径，为促进中国弱势群体自主招生参与状况的改善做出了积极贡献。研究发现，通过信息干预、金钱干预等手段，短期内（当年度）可大幅提升弱势群体的自主招生知晓率和报名率，中长期（1-2年）可大幅提升弱势群体自主招生参与的成功率，研究主要假设均得到验证，研究提出的弱势群体自主招生参与的公平与效率理论模型具有合理性。课题组目前已发表或即将在2018年完成发表的专著3部，学术论文近30篇，通过持续深入的研究工作，本课题组已成为中国高校自主招生公平研究的核心力量。与此同时，相关研究结论也已通过书面形式报告实验单位海南省人民政府，后期在研究收尾过程中还将继续深化理论模型和理论解释研究，也继续向教育部和地方教育行政主管部门提交专家建议和决策参考。