面向飞行器总体设计的两阶段多学科多级不确定性设计优化的理论与方法

The development of aerospace vehicle is the key capability for humans to enter into and exploit the space, and it is also one of the core military competitiveness for a country. General design is an important phase for an aerospace vehicle, thus the researches on robustness-reliability-based design method that matches the engineering management organization at the same time is becoming more and more significant to enhance the aerospace vehicle design level. Therefore, the optimal strategy with two stages on multidisciplinary and multilevel system design optimization is established, based on the analysis of the key discipline and analytical target cascading (ATC) method. The ATC theory is developed with probability-interval-based hybrid uncertainty modeling and analysis, and the hybrid uncertainty-based analytical target cascading (HUATC) method is established as a result. The approximate technology is applied on the uncertainty analysis problems based on the Kriging model and variable complexity theory. Then the theory and method of two stages multidisciplinary multilevel design optimization on aerospace vehicle system design is established with the above theories and methods systematically developed. It promotes the level and efficiency of technology implement and project management in the aerospace vehicle general design process, and enhances the design robustness and reliability. It is also significant for promoting the multidisciplinary design optimization researches oriented to aerospace vehicle general design and improve the development level of aerospace vehicle.

飞行器的研制是人类进入空间和利用空间能力的根本，是未来国家军事竞争力的核心之一。总体设计是飞行器研制的重要阶段，开展与研制体制紧密结合的稳健可靠设计方法的研究成为当前提高飞行器设计水平的迫切需求。本项目基于核心学科分析-解析目标级联 (ATC)优化，提出两阶段多学科多级优化策略；基于随机和区间理论，发展混合不确定性解析目标级联优化理论与方法（HATC）；基于Kriging近似模型和变复杂度理论，建立基于近似建模的不确定性分析方法与流程；形成面向飞行器总体设计的两阶段多学科多级不确定性设计优化的理论与方法，可提高飞行器总体设计过程中技术实施和组织管理水平和效率、增加设计稳健性和可靠性，对推动面向飞行器总体设计的系统设计方法的发展，提高飞行器研制能力和水平有着重要意义。

本项目开展了面向飞行器总体设计的两阶段多学科多级不确定性设计优化的理论与方法的研究。给出了解析目标级联法的数学模型和求解流程，建立了固液动力飞行器动力、弹道、气动、结构学科的分析模型。在此基础上，分别建立了基于随机不确定性建模分析和区间不确定性建模分析的多学科解析目标级联优化的方法；提出了随机区间混合不确定性建模分析方法，建立了混合不确定性多级多学科优化方法；利用Kriging近似模型和变复杂度技术，提出了基于近似模型的不确定性分析和优化方法。针对载人登月上升级固液火箭发动机方案概念设计和固液动力亚轨道探空火箭总体方案概念设计，开展了上述不确定性建模、分析和优化方法的应用研究；结合固液动力机动和巡航飞行器总体方案概念设计，提出了由第一阶段核心学科单学科设计优化与第二阶段不确定性多学科设计优化组成的两阶段多学科不确定性设计优化策略，并在固液动力飞行器总体方案设计上开展了应用研究。数学测试和应用研究结果表明，本项目提出的不确定性优化方法能够得到稳健可靠的优化结果，提高了固液动力飞行器总体方案概念设计阶段的设计效率和水平，可以作为飞行器总体方设计的可行参考方法.