紧急情境下复杂动态应急决策模型与方法研究

The subject of interdisciplinary theories and methods, combined with the characteristics of the political, economic, cultural, and national public management, and fully consider how to deal with emergency situations often face when unconventional emergency decision-making consequences of uncertainty, multiple decision-making goal conflict, more conflict in the decision-making body and decision-makers experience and preferences are difficult to quantify the problem, on the basis of the major technical difficulties involved in-depth analysis of unconventional emergency decision-making dealing with various aspects of modeling, solving, simulation studies, strive to multi-objective multi-agent dynamic distributed emergency decision-making model to obtain the innovation of theories and methods in emergency situations, emergency decision-making risk assessments, decision-making optimization and decision-making process improvements to provide a theoretical basis and analysis, evaluation, optimization method. On this basis, the use of computer simulation technology and the Witness simulation tools, the development of dynamic distributed emergency decision-making simulation in emergency situations and virtual verification platform, support for the emergency decision-making continued. This study has important theoretical significance, but also for improving the level of senior government leaders at all levels in decision-making in emergency management to enhance the emergency response capacity of the government and the society as a whole burst, the overall planning and coordination has an important role not only for the enrichment and development of decision-making theory and method.

课题利用综合交叉学科的理论和方法，结合我国政治、经济、文化以及国家公共管理的特点，充分考虑非常规突发事件应急决策时常常面临的紧急情境下如何处理决策后果不确定、多元决策目标冲突、多个决策主体冲突以及决策者经验与偏好难以量化等难题，在深入分析非常规突发事件应急决策处置各环节所涉及的主要技术难点的基础上，通过建模、求解、仿真研究，力争在紧急情境下多目标多主体动态分布式应急决策模型方面取得理论与方法的创新，为突发事件应急决策风险评估、决策方案优化、决策过程改进提供理论依据和分析、评估、优化方法。在此基础上，利用计算机仿真技术和Witness仿真工具，研制紧急情境下动态分布式应急决策仿真与虚拟验证平台，为应急决策的持续研究提供支持。本研究不仅对于丰富和发展决策理论与方法具有重要的理论意义，而且对于提高各级政府高层领导在应急管理中决策水平，提升政府乃至全社会的突发应急能力、统筹协调能力具有重要作用。

课题利用综合了交叉学科的理论和方法，结合我国政治、经济、文化以及国家公共管理的特点，充分考虑非常规突发事件应急决策时常常面临的紧急情境下如何处理决策后果不确定、多元决策目标冲突、多个决策主体冲突以及决策者经验与偏好难以量化等难题，在深入分析非常规突发事件应急决策处置各环节所涉及的主要技术难点的基础上，通过建模、求解、仿真研究，力争在紧急情境下多目标多主体动态分布式应急决策模型方面取得理论与方法的创新，为突发事件应急决策风险评估、决策方案优化、决策过程改进提供理论依据和分析、评估、优化方法。在此基础上，利用计算机仿真技术和Witness仿真工具，研制紧急情境下动态分布式应急决策仿真与虚拟验证平台，为应急决策的持续研究提供支持。本研究不仅对于丰富和发展决策理论与方法具有重要的理论意义，而且对于提高各级政府高层领导在应急管理中决策水平，提升政府乃至全社会的突发应急能力、统筹协调能力具有重要作用。