中国跨国企业的多元投资模式与复杂整合投资策略研究

The shifts in cost competitiveness and restructuring of global production network have driven outbound investment from Chinese multinationals and their multi motivations and locations. FDI theories and empirical findings up to now can hardly explain the status convincingly, let alone put forward suggestions for the policy makers..Based on the firms’ investment behavior, the investigator tries to develop a two-stage production and multi-location framework with complex integration strategies of the multinationals from developing economies. The equilibrium choices of firms that differ in productivity and product quality levels depend on the role that industry characteristics such as the fixed costs of foreign subsidiaries, the cost of transporting intermediate and final goods, and the regional composition of the consumer market play in determining the optimal integration strategies, which then gives rise to firms’ typical yet dynamic investment patterns and preferences therein..With the parameterized function of productivity cutoff between optional integration strategies, the investigator sets up a cumulative distribution function of heterogeneous firms’ investment. Through investigating the interactions between firms’ factor intensity and technological capacity, and relative factor endowments and consumption preferences of host economies, the investigator reveals the determinants for Chinese multinationals’ multi investment patterns, and expects the adjustment of these patterns and related trade patterns. Since the reciprocal effect between direct investment and trade may distort the gains from openness, the research work has significant policy implications for the evaluation of investment promoting and trade liberalization arrangements.

国家间成本竞争力变化、全球生产格局重构背景下，关于中国跨国企业多元投资模式并存的复杂现象的解释，面临着理论基础不足、实证结果不一的研究困局，难以对投资便利和促进政策调整提供有效支撑。.本课题从企业投资行为的微观层面入手，开发一个基于发展中国家视角的异质性企业复杂整合策略多国投资模型。厘清投资、要素、贸易成本权衡下企业投资策略选择，决定单位成本、部件来源、集聚互补等差异化投资模式的微观机理。通过相对成本变化备选策略生产率界值转移，预期企业投资策略调整及投资模式偏好改变。.参数化备选投资策略生产率界值，输入异质性企业累积投资分布函数，通过观测要素匹配项，揭示中国跨国企业多元投资模式并存的成因，检验企业投资模式调整及由此引起的贸易模式改变。由于投资便利与贸易开放获益，可能因投资与贸易之间多维度交互作用而发生变化，实证建模技术的设计，还有望对投资与贸易自由化政策及其叠加的预期收益做出准确完整的评估

中国企业在全球化进程中已由进口－代工－出口向组织多国生产的新兴跨国企业转变。本项目从中国跨国企业直接投资行为的微观层面入手，考虑投资成本、贸易成本、要素成本等的权衡，开发了一个异质性企业复杂整合投资策略总体均衡框架。基于企业要素需求、技术水平与东道国要素禀赋、需求偏好的匹配，对中国企业多元投资模式偏好、决定及与贸易模式的关系展开了深入研究，并取得了重要成果。（1）揭示了中国企业国际直接投资的典型事实；（2）建立了发展中来源国跨国企业复杂整合投资策略多国模型，并在南－北方区域间质量偏好和技术水平非对称、南方/北方区域内经济体之间技术水平和市场规模非对称等方向上进行了拓展；（3）分析了企业特征和东道国特征对中国跨国企业投资区位选择和投资规模的影响；（4）研究了企业要素需求和技术能力，与投资区位要素禀赋和需求偏好共同作用下企业的投资模式偏好，检验了投资模式偏好引起的贸易模式调整。（5）构建合理的实证研究模型，选择有效估计方法，对理论框架从基础假设到命题的逻辑过程进行了检验。以上成果充分考虑了各类成本因素权衡下企业组织多国生产的复杂整合投资策略选择，基本解决了企业基于投资模式偏好考量，为其中间品、产成品生产和销售等环节在本地生产与出口、区域内跨国投资、跨区域跨国投资、跃区域跨国投资之间进行投资区位布局的问题，为与之紧密相关的贸易模式调整提供了方案。对中国跨国企业经由多国生产向全球价值链高端转移，多边和区域性开放包容公平的贸易与投资规制的形成，具有重要的理论价值和应用前景。在本项目资助下，项目组成员积极参加国内外学术交流，建立了匹配“企业－贸易品/直接投资－贸易伙伴国/资本东道国”的中国跨国企业OFDI/IFDI和进/出口贸易数据库。