双边市场视角下的贸易中间商研究：模式、机理与政策

The trade intermediary is the organizer of the exporting transaction process, and coordinates the importer and exporter to transact. The cross boarder E-Commerce and foreign trade E-Commerce companies will be the important supporting factors of the Chinese stable export development. Although the theoretical research of international trade has agreed that the trade intermediary could improve the transaction efficiency, and reduce the export cost, but still pays less attention to its two-sided market feature. This project will take the methods of field research, case study, mathematical modeling and empirical analysis, and induce the research of two-sided market in industrial economics into the research of trade intermediary in international trade. This project classifies the pure two-sided market type trade intermediary such as foreign trade E-Commerce company, and the quasi two-sided market type trade intermediary such as traditional foreign trade company, and concludes the features of their diversified business modes and the evolutionary machenism, and explains the assumptions, mechanisms and welfare effects of these modes and compares them and pursues the existence of the best business mode in the framework of dynamic game analysis. Meanwhile, in the analytical framework of general equlilibrium, this project analyses the complex effects of the enforcement of the two-sided market feature of trade intermediaries on the structure of international trade, the origin and distribution of international trade gain , and studies the coordination of the foreign trade policies and the competition policies, realizing the double objectives of the stable growth of export and the market free competition to maximize the social welfare.

贸易中间商是出口交易环节的组织者，协调进出口方实现交易。跨境电商与外贸电商企业等新型贸易中间商将成为我国出口稳定发展的重要支撑。虽然国际贸易理论已认同贸易中间商能提高出口交易效率、降低出口成本，但却对其具备的双边市场特征关注不够。本项目采取实地调研、案例分析、数理建模和计量分析等方法，将产业经济的双边市场研究引入国际贸易对贸易中间商的研究。本项目区分外贸电商企业等“纯双边市场型”贸易中间商和传统外贸公司等“类双边市场型”贸易中间商，总结分析其多元运营模式的特征与演变机理，在动态博弈框架下揭示其运营模式前提条件、产生机理和福利效应，比较分析且探索最优运营模式的存在性。同时，本项目还在一般均衡分析框架理论下，分析贸易中间商发挥双边市场特征后对国际贸易格局、国际贸易利益源泉与分配的复杂影响；并研究外贸政策与竞争政策的协调措施，在社会福利最大化目标下实现出口稳定发展与市场自由竞争的双重目标。

在我国整体出口规模增长空间有限的背景下，跨境电商出口持续保持快速增长，成为外贸高质量发展的新动能。2019年跨境电商出口规模达8.03万亿元，年增长超13%，其中B2B交易规模6.3万亿，年增长10.5%。贸易中间商作为双边市场，在跨境电商出口行业的快速发展中发挥核心主体作用，本项目从双边市场的视角去研究贸易中间商的现实模式、运行机理和相关政策。本项目研究内容分为四个方面，包括归纳比较跨境电商中新型贸易中间商的不同运营模式，解释“类双边市场型”贸易中间商运营模式的产生机理与模式演变过程，探讨引入双边市场特征的贸易中间商对国际贸易的影响，围绕双边市场型贸易中间商探索内在协调的外贸政策与竞争政策。本项目的重要研究结果包括三方面。一是从行业规模、运营模式、物流模式三个方面，归纳我国跨境电商出口行业的总体特征和发展进程，动态持续跟踪该行业的最新发展，并总结促进跨境电商出口的各类因素。二是识别出类双边市场型贸易中间商、即外贸公司选择出口结算方式的影响因素；并将制造业企业通过外贸公司出口作为出口模式之一，即间接出口，进而实证检验资本品、中间品进口、生产率与市场势力对我国制造业企业出口模式的影响机理，结果表明资本品和中间品进口都导致我国制造业企业从零出口向间接出口，再向直接出口转变；制造业企业市场势力越大，生产率越高，它就越倾向于间接出口，乃至直接出口。三是构建包含双边市场平台的国际贸易理论模型，在一般均衡的分析框架下，发现跨境电商出口行业中双边市场平台的出现，能通过降低信息成本促进企业的出口；信息成本只影响扩展边际，不影响集约边际。本项目的研究围绕跨境电商出口这一新现象，有助于科学理解该现象，并将双边市场型贸易中间商作为理解该现象的关键主体，具有一定的创新意义。